The NHL offseason is when the majority of major moves occur. in other sports, player movement significantly impacts futures bets. THN Betting looks at why that contrasts the NBA and the NFL.
The biggest trade shoe dropped over the weekend with Erik Karlsson heading to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kyle Dubas added a fourth infinity stone to the collection that already had three slam-dunk Hall of Famers. While all of them are in their mid-30s and past their prime, it is hard to deny what they are capable of. Sidney Crosby hasn't showed any sign of slowing down with 93 points last season. Evgeni Malkin tallied 83 points and most importantly, both men played 82 games.
Kris Letang is the major concern as he's dealt with numerous scary injuries. Erik Karlsson fell off a cliff after his trade to San Jose, only to explode for 101 points in a Norris Trophy winning season. There is nothing that indicates, especially at age 33, that Karlsson will be able to sustain anything close to that level of play. However, he is a much better "Letang insurance policy" than Jeff Petry was. Should Letang remain healthy, Pittsburgh will have the most talented power play of a generation. Yes, the Oilers power play was histrocailly good last year and likely not repeatable. The Oilers power play did not have four future Hall of Famers on it. Should Mike Sullivan opt for the nuclear option when everyone is healthy, the combo of Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson, Letang and Guentzel would be terrifying.
Rightfully, analysts are skeptical about the Penguins and the betting market reflects that. Last season, the team was far too dependent on their aging players. The rest of the roster was unable to provide any level of meaningful support and the goaltending was dreadful. However, it is hard to ignore the upgrades Dubas made to the roster. The Metro division has two juggernauts in Carolina and New Jersey, but is wide open otherwise. The Penguins, with league average goaltending should be a contender for the third divisional spot along with the New York Rangers. It is likely to come down to Jarry's ability to bounce back and the infinity stones remaining healthy. This was reflected in their Stanley Cup Future Odds which opened at +3500 and shortened to +3000 on BetMGM.
The minor shortening of the odds speaks to the betting world's view of hockey. It is the sport that relies the least on skill and most on random chance. For example, the Portland Trailblazers (NBA) fell from +12000 to +25000 after Damian Lillard requested a trade. One player's imminent trade caused a team to see their odds more than double. By contrast, the Sharks odds went from +14000 to +15000 after the Karlsson trade, a negligible difference.
The reality is, the best hockey players play no more than 50% of the game and average around 35% of the game. Star basketball players play 85% of their team's minutes. Star quarterbacks in the NFL take every snap unless they are injured or in a blowout. Those sports are easier to predict because of the star player influence on the outcome. That is why you see the odds change drastically when impactful players are traded or signed.
Conversely, losing or gaining a star player in hockey does not impact the futures odds in the same fashion. Take Connor Bedard, who is widely expected to be the world's best player at some point over the next decade. Chicago owns the sixth longest odds to win the Stanley Cup this upcoming season because his impact cannot outweigh the poor quality of his teammates. The Boston Bruins lost their top-line centre and their odds have moved by less than 200 points. The Florida Panthers are expected to be without top defensemen Aaron Ekblad to open the season; their odds have not changed. If an NBA team was expected to be without their top point guard for any length of time, their odds would change significantly.
The reality of the NHL is that one or two players are not enough to turn a team into a championship contender. If a team were to undergo sweeping changes that saw multiple impact players leaving the roster, there may be more significant odd changes. However, it is exceedingly rare to see a team make those changes and have success. Those moves are usually reserved for rebuilding teams who are jettisoning players for futures.
When it comes to the NHL, player movement does not impact results to anywhere near the level it does in other sports. This is especially true of the contending teams because of the random nature of the sport and *sarcastic voice* the fact that it is officiated differently in the playoffs. Finishing as the best regular season team is seen as a curse in the NHL, whereas it earns you a likely Finals berth in basketball and football. That's the nature of the beast in hockey. The Penguins acquiring Karlsson, the Blackhawks getting Bedard, and the Bruins losing Bergeron barely changed the betting market. That is a clear signal that futures bets are a losing endeavour in the NHL and something to be largely avoided.