After nearly two weeks of play, the model has taken the data and adjusted projections. Auston Matthews is tied for the NHL-lead in scoring and is now the favourite to win the Rocket Richard Trophy.
After nearly two weeks of NHL play, the model has adjusted and there are a few major projection leaps from hot starts. The model does account for previous season performance, but weighs the current games more heavily because situations are fluid. Auston Matthews is now projected to lead the NHL in goals.
Auston Matthews is tied for the league lead in scoring after back-to-back hat tricks to open the season. While he hasn't found the net since, his 30 shots rank third in the NHL behind Jack Eichel and Nathan Mackinnon, the latter was boosted by a 14 shot outing. Matthews is shooting 20% this season, or about 4% higher than his career shooting percentage. Averaging six shots per game over 82 games is unsustainable, although Matthews is projected to finish the year with 388 shots on goal, a career high. If Matthews converts at his career average, he will score 61 goals.
The model projects Matthews to finish with 58 goals with his closest counterpart projected to finish with 55 (David Pastrnak). Matthews leads the league at individual expected goals created with 4.92 at all strengths. While it is less than than his actual goal total, it indicates that his scoring should continue at a similar pace, which is how the model arrived at the 58 goal projection. Matthews is leading the NHL with 40 individual scoring chances, 10 more than second place Connor Bedard. Matthews is unlikely to create 8 chances per game, but in his current form, it is likely he creates 5 per game. Last season, he led the NHL with nearly 400 scoring chances in all situations, and 285 at 5-on-5. If Matthews is able to stay healthy and convert at his career rate, 50 goals should be the minimum expectation.
It is only two weeks in, but Matthews is the favourite to win the Rocket and deservedly so.
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