The Case For Signing Mr. Consistently Predictable, Phil Kessel

Phil Kessel is a three-time Stanley Cup Champion. Phil Kessel owns the NHL's Iron man streak at 1,064 games. He has not missed a regular season game since 2009. He is the only player to play 1,000 consecutive NHL games - the benchmark for longevity. For context, the last time Phil Kessel missed an NHL game, I was a high school freshman. Teams have been hesitant to sign him on the back-9 of his career for fear of backlash if the streak is broken via healthy scratch. Kessel is not the player he once was, but he's a player who can bring reliable value on a league minimum contract. 

The major concern with players over 35 is that their contracts remain on the salary cap if they retire before the end of their contract. Missing games due to injury is not something teams should be worried about to the same extent with Kessel who will be 36 in October. Secondly, Kessel is unlikely to be offered a multi-year deal where this consideration would be weighed more heavily. Kessel is willing to take a one-year deal by all accounts. 

On a deep team in Vegas last season, Kessel saw his time-on-ice (TOI) dip from 16:40 to 12:48 - the lowest average of his career. Despite his vastly diminished role, Kessel recorded a respectable 14 goals and 36 points. In his 17-year career, Kessel has recorded more than 10 goals in every season but '21-'22 where his shooting percentage cratered to 4.6% on a tanking Arizona Coyotes team. Of the NHL players who averaged less than 13 minutes of TOI last season, Kessel finished 6th in goals behind Ross Colton, William Carrier, Michael Amadio, Trent Frederic and Daniel Sprong. Colton, Frederic and Sprong will have significant role increases this season and Kessel's Vegas teammates saw their shooting percentages balloon by more than 50% of their career average. It is highly likely they regress to the mean and both finish with ~10 goals. 

Using Kevin, a deep learning player projection model that ingests data as games are played and therefore, consistently updates projections to reflect the player's most recent performance, Kessel is projected to score between 13-16 goals and 33-40 points this season. If you adjust for some missed games due to healthy scratch, it becomes 11-14 goals and 27-33 points. Both are more than respectable for a player on one-year, league minimum deal. 

Kessel is known league-wide for one thing on the ice: his release. Too many goalies to count say that Kessel's shot is among the most difficult to read and predict. One former NHL goalie said, "A top-5 release in the 2010s. At one point, only Ovechkin's snapper was harder to get a read on." Only the greatest goalscorer in the history of the sport was more difficult to read than Phil Kessel. Another said, "One moment he's in full flight, the next his arms are in the air. No one could shoot it without breaking stride like he could. He can still do it, he's just not as fast a skater anymore." There is a reason he's made his career coming down the right-wing and snapping it by NHL goalies every season. He doesn't bring much outside of his goal-scoring ability on the ice, but he's mastered the hardest skill in the game. In a flat cap scenario where teams need to squeeze every dollar, Kessel is capable of providing 15 goals in a bottom-six role with power play time on the second unit. 

Many teams are front-loaded offensively and struggle to gain any offensive value from the bottom-six. While the bottom-six has typically been reserved for two-way checkers and bruisers, there is tangible evidence to suggest that the best teams get offensive contributions from the entire lineup. Teams usually struggle to find secondary power play snipers in this flat cap age. At league minimum, Kessel can reliably be a trigger man on a second power play unit. There is value to having scoring threats on both power play units, especially when the player is willing to accept that role. 

The elephant in on-ice play is Kessel's defence, or lack thereof. Kessel is a liability defensively, and has been throughout his career. There is an argument to be made that teams spend far too much money on players who are "defensively reliable with little offensive value" in lieu of players who are "offensively gifted and one-dimensional." Ideally, you want players with a mix of both. Those players are difficult to are find and often overpaid. It is easier to find bottom of the lineup players who are defensively reliable than to find ones who can score. It becomes a matter of having a balance of the two player-types. 

A major statistical argument against Kessel is his age. The mindset should to give younger players the opportunity that is usually afforded to players on the wrong side of 35. However, tale as old as time, NHL coaches and managers preach the importance of predictability and consistency. Every time a young prospect is sent down, it is always about "learning to be consistent and predictable." There is no player more predictable or consistent than Kessel. 17 seasons of consistent goal scoring and good health is more than enough to go on. His flaws are just as predictable, too. He's not going to give you two-way ability and he isn't going to forecheck or hit the way a traditional bottom-six player would. But, he can do something the majority of those players can't: score. 

Remove his name and his Iron man streak, which he is willing to forego: Every GM should be seriously considering a bottom-six player who can reliably score 15 goals for the league minimum. A Cup Contender needs a big goal or two that often comes from the bottom-six, he can do that. A tanking team needs players that will get butts in seats and a goalscorer will do that. At league minimum, there is almost no risk to signing Kessel now that he's publicly stated his willingness to forego the Iron man streak if a coach believes he should be a healthy scratch. 

Say what you want about his enigmatic personality or body composition, Phil Kessel clearly knows what it takes to remain healthy and score consistently in the NHL. On a young team, his ability to be the savvy veteran and teach younger players his tricks may have more value than his stat line. The bottom line: Mr. Consistently Predictable deserves an NHL contract.