This article explains how to find value in money line bets based on implied odds and betting odds.
Now that we've looked at how context, match-ups and injuries impact individual player props, it is time to take a wider lens to betting and apply it to money line bets. The true value in money line bets isn't picking the favourite to win and being right 70% of the time. The value is understanding when lines are not what they should be and taking the appropriate bets. You may win more money by winning 40% of your underdog bets than if you were to win 70% of your favourite bets. Why?
Let's say you take 10 bets on the favourite at -175. In order to make $100, you would need to bet $175. If you win 7/10 bets, you would win a total of $175. 7 wins is +$700, 3 losses is -$525, the difference is a net positive of $175. Conversely, let's say you take 10 bets on the underdog at +175. If you win 4/10 bets, you would win a total of $100. 4 wins is +$700, 6 losses is -$600, the difference in a net positive of $100.
The reason this is important to understand in hockey is because of the random chance factor. You can pick most winners on any given day in basketball and football. With the way the NHL is structured, any team can win or lose on any given night. That is how the Arizona Coyotes beat the Leafs in Toronto, how Chicago beat Pittsburgh at the end of the season and so on. While the rosters are much better on paper, there are too many random chance factors such as bad bounces, deflections and officiating.
There are more scoring opportunities to minimize the effect of the randomness in other sports. That is not the case in hockey where most games are between four and six goals in the span of 60 minutes. The Vancouver Canucks made the Stanley Cup Final in 2011 because a puck took a weird bounce off a stanchion and landed on a player's stick, allowing him to score before anyone else realized where the puck was. That simply would not happen in other sports.
All of this is to say, the underdogs are far more likely to win in hockey than they are in other team sports. The betting lines reflect that, but not to the extent they should. The reality is most betting favourites are between 52%-57% to win on any given night, meaning their lines should be -108 to -132. Most nights, many favourites are found between -150 and -190, implied odds of 60%-65%. Only seven teams won more than 60% of their games last season. Most of them were -200 or worse on any given night. There is no value in betting on those teams because the odds are "juiced.
If the odds are juiced to the favourite, there is likely value to be had on the underdogs. An underdog is usually between 43%-48% to win, meaning odds should be +108 to +132. Generally speaking, books have underdogs between +115 to +135. While that may not seem like much value, over the course of a season, the difference between +7 points of value and -7 points of value is very noticeable.
In life, you are always looking for value. That is why everyone turns rabid on Black Friday or Boxing Day. While I think it is somewhat crazy to see people camping out and trampling each other for TVs and such, the concept is easy to grasp. People understand they are able to get something more valuable than the price they are paying for it. If you apply the same concept to betting, it is easier to understand why betting on underdogs in hockey can be a profitable strategy. Blindly betting is not a strategy. Looking carefully at the lines and understanding where the value is based on the public models (or your own), combining that with context, match-ups and injuries will help you select which teams to back on any given night.
Next in the series: Using context, match-ups and injuries to find money line bets