In this series, we will explore the rising significance of advanced statistics in hockey and how bettors can incorporate analytics into their betting strategies to make more informed and profitable wagers. This article explains how to leverage important analytics to bet on hockey.
In the first instalment of this series, we looked at various analytics and sources that are important to leverage when betting on hockey. Familiarizing yourself with those metrics and their use is vital to understanding the rest of the series. In the second instalment, we will discuss how to incorporate those analytics into betting strategies.
Research and Stay Up To Date: This is the most critical part of the process. Start by familiarizing yourself with the various advanced statistics used by following reputable sources, websites, and experts who provide in-depth analysis and explanations. Staying informed about players and teams through advanced stats will give you a competitive edge when placing bets.
This is discussed more in-depth in the first instalment. Staying up to date on players is important when placing bets. Starting goalies are not announced until the morning of the game, sometimes the afternoon. Lineups at the game day skates are generally posted by reporters. Following reporters who consistently tweet out lineups or visiting various websites who post line combinations allows you to determine who is playing, where they are playing and what special teams they are included on. This is important to understand injuries and player usage, which may give you an edge on the betting lines.
The injury and starting goalie information is key. If a back-up goalie is starting, it is likely that you can get a value price on their opponent. The difference between a starting goalie and back-up starting is often 3-7%. That presents incredible value. Similarly with injuries, if a star player is in or out, it can significantly impact the line. Watching the lineups closely is important when finding value.
Identify Valuable Trends and Patterns: Analyze historical data and trends to identify teams and players that consistently outperform or underperform their boxscore statistics. For example, a team with a high CF% and xG but a lower shooting percentage might be undervalued in betting markets, presenting an opportunity to bet on them as potential winners. Similarly, a team with a low CF% and xG but a higher shooting percentage might be overvalued in betting markets, presenting an opportunity to bet on the underdog. This is where understand PDO is important, as regression to the mean is the most likely outcome.
A few quick betting formulas that have helped me:
Below 48% HDCF% + Below 50% xGF% + PDO above 102 = Fade
Above 52% HDCF% + Above 50% xGF% + PDO below 98 = Back
The Fade bet is especially true when the team in question is the betting favourite. The Back bet is especially true when the team in question is the underdog. This is a likely sign that the team is not valued appropriately by the betting market.
Watching a team's statistical trends can aid in identifying value opportunities. If a team is winning games on the back of an inflated PDO, or winning games despite losing the xG and scoring chance battles, they are a prime candidate for negative regression. Furthermore, if the team's PDO is at or near 100, but their other metrics are trending in a certain direction, keep an eye on that over a five game stretch to monitor the results. If trending positively, there may be a valuable opportunity to bet on them to win and vice versa.
Consider Context and Matchups: While advanced statistics provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole basis for your betting decisions. Remember, analytics are salad. Consider the context of a game, injuries, player match-ups, and other factors that may impact the outcome. Analytics is a good starting point for analysis, but bets should not be placed without considering the human factor.
For example, I don't care what the numbers say, I will simply refuse to bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs in any Game 7. It will not happen. Similarly, the Leafs have a habit of losing to the league's worst teams as heavy favourites. While those decisions may defy analytics, sometimes there are teams who defy logic. The Toronto Maple Leafs are one of those teams.
There are a few more things to consider. Is one team hot? Or cold? If a player is playing against his former team, they are usually a good bet to go over their shot totals and even score. A goaltender is always motivated to play against his former team. These are small contextual things to consider when betting, especially on player props.
In a later instalment of the series, I will discuss how to bet using context, match-ups and injuries to your advantage.