In the second instalment of this series, we looked at ways to leverage data when betting on hockey. Part of leveraging that data is understanding the context it is applied to and where the advantages are. For example, if a player was bumped off the power play, they are going to have less shooting opportunities and therefore, may have value on the under side of their shot prop. If a player is battling an injury, they are more likely to be tentative in certain areas, which may impact their performance and the team's result.
There are two parts to this. This first is using the context and matchups on player props, which is covered in this article. The second, is using the context on team props, money lines and totals. The data is used differently depending on the type of bet you intend to make.
Matchups: Matchups are key to understanding value of a betting line. A player likely to draw the matchup against the opponent's top pair of defencemen and shut down forwards will have a tougher time creating offence than players who play against lower quality of competition. Usually, coaches match their best defence pair against their opponent's best line. Where that matters is not the superstars, but their line mates. For example, a winger on Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid's line will get a more difficult matchup than if they were on the second or third line. If that player is moved to a different line, it is likely they will see an easier matchup and therefore, more likely to have offensive success.
A player matched up against the top pair from Carolina or Toronto will have a harder time generating offence than a player matched up against the top pair of Chicago or Arizona. While the best players always draw the best players out of the opponent, there is a sliding scale of value on bets depending upon how good their opponents are. The shot lines generally do not fluctuate and therefore, value can be found on overs or unders depending on the matchup each player is likely to face.
Trends: Whether it is the stock market or betting, looking at trends is the easiest thing to do. It is also incredibly important. Knowing a player is prone to streakiness, like Phil Kessel or Steven Stamkos, is good when considering a bet. Players who are consistent over 5-10 game stretches can provide great opportunities. A player who is "hot" will often find their odds drop as their production continues because more people pick up on it. Jumping on the streaky players early, especially as it pertains to goal scoring.
I do not personally bet on goal scorers very often because of their volatility. However, when looking to identify which players may be worth while bets, there are a few trends to look at. Players who generate shots, high danger scoring chances and have a lower shooting percentage than expected are likely to see positive regression. That is to say, they are likely to see those chances go in at the expected level if the high danger chances are there. High danger chances are indicative of a player who is getting to the right area of the ice, creating scoring opportunities and more than likely, getting unlucky.
When looking at player props, there are plenty of websites that track shots on goal and shot attempts on a game to game basis. Furthermore, if the player is generating shots on the powerplay, it may be a change in the tactic that has caused that and thus, an opportunity to bet. Players like Jared McCann, Tage Thompson, Jason Robertson and Mike Matheson were consistent shooters last season and were good options. Matheson was not a primary shooter, but is a good example of a player taking advantage of a favourable matchup. If a player is consistently hitting a number, they may be a good candidate for a parlay. Last season, I ran the McMatherson parlay: 3 shots from McCann, Matheson and Thompson on every night they play. Identifying consistent shooters allows you to trust in the player and potentially, find building block for parlays.
Context: Context is key. There is always a human element to professional sports and it can be a positive or negative. For example, a Toronto area player playing in Toronto seems to always score against the Leafs. At a minimum, they are fired up and are a good bet to hit their over on shots. There is no data behind it other than the context that hometown players are always motivated to play at home. Secondly, there is the player against former team bet. I did not realize how prevalent it was until I worked closely with players, but they are always fired up to play against their former teams. You can add an extra layer to that if the parting of ways was not amicable. Players will have money on the board and will be extra motivate to contribute to team success. They are always good bets in what is known as "Revenge Games."
When evaluating player shot props, look at the situations they are playing in. Are they on the top power play unit? Are they the primary shooter on their line? If their line mates are consistent, how many shot attempts are they generating game to game? Are they rush based shots or shots that come from extending offensive zone time? All of these questions are important context to understand the rationale behind the bet. If a player is in the doghouse or has gone cold, they squeeze the stick a little tighter and that leads to more mistakes. A player may be battling confidence or injury which can contribute to a shift down the lineup or change in performance. Staying up to date on players you intend to wager on is important to making educated decisions.
Rule of Thumb: Generally speaking, I won't bet on a player who is rumoured to be battling injury or is fresh off a return to action. Giving the player a few games to settle in is important. The risk does not outweigh the reward in that case as players can take a few games to adapt and get their timing right.