Andrei Vasilevskiy will miss the first two months of the NHL season. This impacts Tampa Bay's playoff chances. How much? The Hockey News breaks it down.
Tampa Bay announced on Thursday that perennial Vezina contender Andrei Vasilevskiy will miss the first two months of the 2023-24 season after undergoing back surgery. This is a significant blow to the Lightning as Vasilevskiy has been a pillar of their modern day dynasty. Tampa's playoff projections according to Kevin were more than 73% with Vasilevskiy.
The drop-off between Vasilevskiy is sub-replacement level Jonas Johannsson is gargantuan. While the Lightning may not perceive it as a big deal, if Vasilevskiy does not return to his form when he gets back in the lineup, the Lightning are in big trouble. As it stands, Tampa is 63% to make the playoffs with the current injury and timeline. The model assumes Vasilevskiy will find his reliable form and lead Tampa to season where they are most likely to finish in the first Wild Card spot or third Atlantic Division spot.
Should Vasilevskiy perform at league average upon his return, Tampa's chances drop further and they become most likely to finish in the second Wild Card spot, narrowly edging the Buffalo Sabres. That would set up an interesting playoff situation with the best team in the Eastern Conference rewarded with a potentially healthy Tampa Bay team. Not exactly a reward.
Prior to the announcement, the Lightning were projected to finish second in the Atlantic Division. Tampa's reliance on Vasilevskiy and the significant drop off to any replacement cannot be discounted. There is little doubt Tampa will find a way into the playoffs (they always do), but a back injury is just as serious as hips, knees and groins for goalies. There is always a risk of re-injury upon return and impeded movement, a key part of Vasilevskiy's success. The model expects Tampa to make the playoffs, but there is value on their line to miss the playoffs at +200.