As the Washington Capitals face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, we delve into the stats and history to predict whether the legendary Alex Ovechkin will find the back of the net.
Four games into the NHL season and Alex Ovechkin has yet to score a goal. On nine shots, which is well below is career average, Ovechkin has not registered a goal. He was held without a shot in two straight games for the first time in his 19-year career. A model of consistency for two decades showing signs of Father Time? Sounds like he needs to play the Toronto Maple Leafs. Good thing he gets the chance tonight!
Ovechkin has been a royal thorn in the side of the Leafs for 19 years, notching 41 goals in 56 games. Against Toronto, Ovechkin is averaging 0.73 goals per game and 1.32 points per game. He averages more goal per game against Toronto than any other Eastern Conference opponent. For good measure, Ovechkin has averaged 4.7 shots per game against the Leafs. Of his 30 career hat tricks, two have come against Toronto (2011, 2017). The best players always find a way to put on a show against the Leafs and Ovechkin has done that consistently for two decades.
There wouldn't be concern generally if Ovechkin was generating chances and as getting unlucky. The concern is that he isn't generating the same volume. Currently, Ovechkin is on pace for 185 shots, the lowest total by a wide margin in his NHL career (in a full season). For context, Ovechkin played 45 games in 2019-20 before the COVID lockdown and registered 182 shots. Ovechkin saw a 7.3% drop in shots on goals and 5% drop in total shot attempts last season.
Only four games in, Ovechkin is on pace for a 44% drop in shots on goal. While that is unlikely to sustain itself, his shot attempts have dropped by 17.7% in the early going. Passing Gretzky's record seemed like a foregone conclusion until the season started. The drop-off has been stark, with Ovechkin missing chances that were automatic conversions in years past. Ovechkin needs a few things to go right for him to catch Gretzky: health, more shots and some luck.
Tonight, he may get the third piece of the puzzle in luck. After an uncharacteristically bad start, Ovechkin faces a Leafs team who's looked shaky in the early-going. They've struggled against less talented teams like Montreal and Chicago, and have trouble playing consistently. Ovechkin has been the model of consistency against the Leafs, scoring big goal after big goal. He's torched the Leafs throughout his career and they might be the remedy he needs to get back on track.
The model projects Ovechkin for 3.26 shots and 0.71 goals tonight. The goal projection is his second highest of the season. Ovechkin is showing signs of life and the model has accounted for that. Ovechkin had a few miscues in his most recent game that the model sees as more likely to be goals than not. Against a Toronto team that is struggling to get reliable goaltending and playing below their capabilities, this is a prime spot for Ovechkin to get himself back on track. Ten games without a goal would be an incredible anomaly for the game's greatest goal scorer, and its the Leafs, so we all know where this is going.