It's September, which means we have hockey this month! With that in mind, The Hockey News looks at the races for NHL Awards heading into the season starting with the Hart Trophy, where Connor McDavid leads the way.
Kicking off the NHL betting season in style, The Hockey News is breaking down the races for the various end-of-season awards heading into training camp. Lots of analytics, math and common sense. Maybe, the odd hot take.
First off, the Hart Trophy for the player judged to be most valuable to his team. I would like to start this by saying the definition of the award is ambiguous and causes unnecessary consternation and debate every year. Certainly, the spirit of the award is MVP, however we could probably benefit from having another award for Most Outstanding Player. Call it the Wayne Gretzky Award. Problem solved.
Every year, it seems we debate Connor McDavid's candidacy because he has Leon Draisaitl versus another player on a bubble playoff team who doesn't have a superstar teammate. Sure, Tage Thompson may be more valuable to the Buffalo Sabres, but are we going to with a straight face say he's a more valuable player than Connor McDavid? We probably shouldn't. The player who has the greatest impact on a nightly basis is clearly most valuable to their team, regardless of what "help" they do or do not have.
The Favourite: Connor McDavid
McDavid is the favourite until proven otherwise. After a near 70 goal season, where he tallied 25 more points than any other player and an astonishing 40 points than any non-Edmonton Oiler, he's earned that right. McDavid's season last year was one of the most incredible seasons of the modern era. He should have been the unanimous winner, but alas, the definition caused that to go awry.
It isn't reasonable to expect McDavid to repeat a season of 64 goals and 153 points, but betting against him has proven to be a losing endeavour. After all, he had 45 multi-point games and only seven games without a point. Five times more games with 2+ points than games with zero. Those are numbers that wouldn't be believable in a video game.
From a player value perspective, he is very obviously the best offensive player in the game. The knock against him has been his two-way play. That took a big step forward last season, with McDavid ranking in 75th percentile of defensive value according to Dom Luszczyszyn. Not only was McDavid the going away best offensive player, he was valuable defensively, too. He recorded a career high 1:16 time on ice per game while shorthanded, after three consecutive seasons of less than 15 seconds per game. McDavid is dominating all 200 feet of the ice night in and night out. Until someone else dethrones him, he is a prohibitive favourite to win the Hart Trophy.
The Familiar Faces
There are a few individuals who are consistently in the Hart Trophy conversation, the league's consistently elite game-changers. Nathan Mackinnon, Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar and Auston Matthews have consistently been in the conversation the past few seasons with a few wins between them. None of them should be counted out despite a singular down season.
Nathan Mackinnon has been nominated three times in six years and finished top-six in five of those seasons. He's consistently been one of the NHL's most dominant forces who resembles a bull in an antique shop more than a hockey player when he gets rolling. He's capable of taking over games on his own and is likely to rack up points this season with a healthy Makar and Mikko Rantanen forming Colorado's three-headed monster.
Speaking of Cale Makar, he's routinely mentioned in the conversation for the league's best defenceman. Though the nominations haven't followed, he's been a figure in the Hart conversation late into the season for the last few seasons. Had he remained healthy last season, he likely would've been in the running for a nomination. He's a dominant force at both ends of the ice, averaging nearly 26:30 per game, and consistently winning matchups against the league's best players.
Leon Draisaitl is the most obvious player for this category, finishing top-10 the last four seasons and winning the Hart, Art Ross and Lindsay Awards in 2019-20. He's widely considered the NHL's best passer and it doesn't harm him that he's got McDavid to pass to. The combination of the two makes for a historically good power play, allowing Draisaitl to rack up the points. Draisaitl belongs here, but he'll need to keep pace with McDavid and improve his defensive play to dethrone his teammate.
Auston Matthews followed a 60 goal, Hart Trophy winning season with a disappointing 40-goal campaign. That sentence is why he belongs in this category. 99% of NHLers scoring 40 goals would be considered a fantastic season. However, it is no secret that Matthews is capable of much more. While his counting stats weren't up to par, Matthews was dominant offensively and suffered a significant drop in shooting percentage. Should his shooting percentage positively regress, it is reasonable to expect a return above the 50-goal threshold. Combine that with his 200-foot play and Matthews will be a perennial contender for the Hart if he remains healthy.
The Newer Faces
There are a few individuals who announced themselves in the league's elite this past season and everyone took note. No one should be surprised to see these players in the conversation come the spring, and they are likely to have valuable lines.
The first one seems obvious given he was nominated this past year and broke out in the playoffs. Matthew Tkachuk has posted consecutive 100+ point seasons and given his centermen is Sasha Barkov, I don't expect him to drop below 90 points if he remains healthy. Tkachuk is a unicorn in this league, he's an elite pest and offensive player wrapped into one. However, he gives quite a bit back defensively and relies on his elite two-way center to carry the lion's share of defensive responsibility. The biggest difference is Tkachuk's production with the man advantage, which saw him jump from 0.27 points per game to 0.46 points per game with the man advantage from 2020-21 to 2022-23. He's registered consecutive 40 goal seasons after scoring 30 once in the previous five seasons. There is no doubt Tkachuk is a star, but a lot of his value comes from the intangibles, which make it harder to measure against elite two-way players with better contingency stats.
Jack Hughes exploded last season registering 99 points in 78 games. Should he remain healthy, he's a good bet to crack the 100 point plateau this season. He's the star of an up and coming New Jersey team that looks poised to be a contender for years to come. He's not a physical specimen in the way Matthews or Mackinnon are, but he's slippery and has started to figure out how to play against opponents who outweighs him handily. One thing to watch for, Hughes doubled his power play point totals last year under Andrew Brunette, who has moved on to coach in Nashville. It is reasonable to expect some regression in that area, but not enough to take Hughes out of the 100 point conversation as his 5on5 play should continue to improve. Similar to most young player, Hughes gives back value defensively and will never be the go-to guy in that department given Nico Hischier's proven two-way ability. If Hughes takes on tougher matchups this season and performs well, he could find himself in the conversation.
The first player on a team to miss the playoffs finds his way on the list: Elias Pettersson. His incredible season went nearly unnoticed despite more points than Hughes and a significantly better defensive performance than Tkachuk. Personally, I think a player who performs at an elite level at both ends of the ice on a non-playoff team shouldn't be penalized because his supporting cast isn't as strong. Nowhere does it say the team has to make the playoffs for a player to win the Hart, but it is a widely held belief. For his part, Pettersson performed at an elite level all season long despite the never-ended distractions in the Canucks organization. He will surely be a Selke contender and if he can put together another stellar offensive season, he should be in the conversation regardless of where the Canucks are in the standings. Without Pettersson last year, the Canucks lose five extra wins of value, putting them firmly in Bedard territory.
The Goalies
There are three goalies who have proven to be MVP calibre the past few seasons: Ilya Sorokin, Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin. Neither the Islanders nor the Predators sniff the playoffs without the performance of their goaltenders last season. Both Saros and Sorokin were deservedly in the Hart conversation and frankly, could've been nominated ahead of Pastrnak and Tkachuk. If we are to judge based on the definition of the award, only McDavid was as important to the Oilers success last season as Sorokin and Saros were to their respective teams. The problem is, goalies rarely win the Hart even though it is widely accepted that without a good goalie, it is exceedingly difficult to have sustained success.
Igor Shesterkin is included here because he's shown to be more than capable of covering for a defensively deficient Rangers team on quite a few occasions. In a down season, he posted a .916 with 37 wins. Shesterkin is capable of a .935 season and should remain one of the league's elite goalies which may keep him in the Hart conversation.
Don't Count Him Out
There's one guy I have learned not to bet against, under any circumstances. He's old and you never know when Father Time will catch him, but betting against Sidney Crosby is never a good idea. He, Malkin and Letang dragged a lacklustre Penguins team to the cusp of the playoffs last year with no help. He got some help this summer, in a Norris kind of way. Between the acquisitions of Erik Karlsson, Reilly Smith and Ryan Graves, the Penguins have provided their generational captain with some much needed help. Karlsson will almost certainly inject new offensive life into a mediocre power play. 93 points is quite an accomplishment for a 35-year-old and perhaps Crosby will be able to focus on two-way play with some offensive depth on the roster. Crosby's defensive play has fallen off, but I am ready to say he's lost the ability to be an elite two-way player. If he is able to hit 90 points and play an elite two-way game, he may force the hands of the voters to consider him.