Adam Fantilli is expected to go second overall. Could there be a surprise?
The Anaheim Ducks have the second overall pick in this year's draft and Adam Fantilli is the overwhelming favourite to be selected. If there is one thing Anaheim has been extraordinarily good at over the last two decades, it is drafting NHL players. Martin Madden, who leads the draft for Anaheim, owns one of the top draft success rates since 2005.
Not every player has been a Duck, but they've been quality NHL players drafted by Anaheim. Shea Theodore, Troy Terry, Isac Lundestrom, Josh Mahura, Brandon Montour and William Karlsson are just a few players selected after pick number 20 who have been good NHL players.
In the top 10? The Ducks haven't had a miss in a very long time. Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Hampus Lindholm and Bobby Ryan is an incredible track record. Bobby Ryan was drafted second overall in 2005, the pick Anaheim owns in 2023.
Given geopolitical climate and contract situation, Matvei Michkov seems to have been taken out of the conversation for Anaheim. However, evaluating on talent and talent alone, he is closer to Connor Bedard than he is to Adam Fantilli in my projection model. While I don't see Anaheim stepping up and taking Michkov at number two, the Ducks always take the best player available and Michkov is the best player in the draft after Bedard. At +1600, there is incredible value if you believe Anaheim may surprise the hockey world.
Anaheim boasts a future at centre that includes Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras and Nathan Gaucher. Given their age and skill level, that is going to be a boat load to handle in a couple of years. It is highly likely that Zegras moves to the wing if Anaheim drafts one of Adam Fantilli or Leo Carlsson.
It is well known that the belief in NHL front offices is that you need big, rugged centres to be successful in the Western Conference. Should the Ducks draft one of Fantilli or Carlsson, their top three centres would measure over six feet tall and built like trucks. Both Fantilli and Carlsson project to be top line centres in the NHL, allowing McTavish to slide down to the second line. Moving Zegras to the wing gives Anaheim the ability to have Terry on one line and Zegras on another. Frankly, that's terrifying.
At +700, there is value on Leo Carlsson to go second overall. The gap between him and Fantilli is not as big as the lines have it, regardless of the rumours. While Fantilli seems like the lock to go second, it is worth pointing out that Anaheim likes their Swedes. Carlsson projects to be a top line centre who is impactful at both ends of the ice and should score between 70-80 points consistently.
There is no value on Fantilli to go second. The reality is, you don't win enough money if you're right and the risk to be wrong is too rich for my blood. He seems to be the guy. The value on Michkov and Carlsson is there, but it doesn't exist with Fantilli. If you believe like most, that Fantilli is going second, it's best to stay away from betting on the second overall pick.