Which Connor Bedard Card Would You Rather Have? Young Guns or NHL Draft SP?

Tough choice. Connor Bedard Young Guns or NHL Draft SP?

The Young Guns rookie cards first appeared in 1990-91 and have been a staple in Upper Deck products ever since. Every hockey collection starts with Young Guns.

Check out that old Louisville TPS stick! That stick probably weighed as much as his skates.

Okay, back to the topic.

As expected, Connor Bedard has vaulted hockey card collecting to a new level. Almost anyone and everyone who collects sports cards has taken their shot at chasing the $1,000,000 bounty offered by Dave and Adams for the Bedard 1/1 Gold Outburst Young Guns. By the way, the bounty has not been claimed as of writing this article.

If you were going to start your Connor Bedard collection with one card and you had only two choices, which card should you choose?

Should you purchase a PSA 10 Bedard Young Guns or PSA 10 Bedard NHL Draft SP?

We can start by looking at the odds of pulling each card. The Bedard Young Guns can be found in approximately 1:100 packs or 1:8.3 boxes of 2023-24 Upper Deck Series Two.

The Bedard NHL Draft SP is considered an Easter Egg and does not have stated odds provided by Upper Deck. It is believed that the NHL Draft SP can be found 1:432 packs or 1:36 boxes of 2023-24 Upper Deck Series One.

To summarize, there will be less NHL Draft SP Bedard hits in circulation when comparing to his Young Guns cards.

Next up, we will take a look at the population counts of the Young Guns and NHL Draft SP. Why do population counts matter? Click here to find out. 

There are a combined 6,979 PSA 9 and PSA 10 Bedard Young Guns in circulation compared to a 650 PSA 9 and PSA 10 Bedard NHL Draft SP's in circulation.

Remember, population count is your competition when trying to buy or sell a card.

It is also worth noting that the population count for Bedard Young Guns PSA 9's and PSA 10's are nearly equal. However, the Bedard Draft SP is a much tougher grade. Of the 650 Bedard Draft SP's referenced, 11.7% have been graded a PSA 10.

The Bedard Young Guns has seen a sharp decline in value that coincides with the growing population count. Supply has started to exceed demand. Bedard Young Guns PSA 10's have been trading for ~$900 over the last few weeks which is a steep drop from over $2,000 when the graded versions started to circulate.

It is important to note that multiple daily transactions for Bedard PSA 10's occur on eBay.

The last Bedard NHL Draft SP PSA 10 sold for $1,876 with most prior sales being in the $2,500 range.

Based on population count alone, the Bedard NHL Draft SP PSA 10 has a higher ceiling than the Bedard Young Guns PSA 10.

The Bedard NHL Draft SP PSA 10 is the way to go. It is a card that does not exchange hands multiple times on a daily basis and trades for nearly double what a Bedard Young Guns PSA 10 trades for.

A Bedard Young Guns PSA 10 is a card that is easily replaceable. They trade daily on eBay and other trading card forums. The Bedard Young Guns PSA population count has already exceed Connor McDavid's Young Guns PSA population count by over 1,600 cards (PSA 9's and PSA 10's only factored). McDavid's Young Guns have been in circulation since 2016.

Happy hunting and collecting!