Oilers Can't Give Up Home Ice Advantage In First Round
Leon Draisaitl and Darcy Kuemper. (Perry Nelson-Imagn Images)The Edmonton Oilers are going to the playoffs.
That much is clear. Both The Athletic and MoneyPuck peg their playoff chances at over 99% with about three weeks left in the regular season. But the Oilers aren't looking to just make the playoffs, they're looking to go on another long run. That starts now, with twelve crucial games left to determine their playoff seeding.
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They're in very familiar territory, sitting third in the Pacific Division, tied with the Los Angeles Kings with 87 points with one more game played. The Vegas Golden Knights are just barely in sight with 92 points, while Vancouver and Calgary are miles behind as they battle for the final wild card spot in the west.
Thus, the divisional playoff format rears its ugly head once again, as the Oilers and Kings are on a collision course in the first round for the fourth consecutive year.
The Oilers have come out on top in the past three matchups, and it's gotten easier every time. Having beat the Kings in seven games in 2022, six in 2023, and five in 2024, it doesn't take a genius to predict a four-game sweep in 2025. The Kings seem destined to run into the wall that is the Edmonton Oilers yet again.
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But we all know that's not how the NHL playoffs work. Eventually, it feels like Los Angeles will have to break through. And they could have one big advantage they haven't yet had over the Oilers: home ice.
Going back to the playoff odds, both The Athletic and MoneyPuck project Edmonton to finish third in the Pacific Division behind Los Angeles. The Oilers have already seen what happens without home-ice advantage: they lost game seven of the Stanley Cup Finals on the road last year. What happens when they don't have that advantage against the team that knows them better than anyone?
Ideally, the Oilers just storm their way to the Pacific Division title, Vegas be damned. MoneyPuck gives them a 5.7% chance of winning the division, with the Golden Knights as heavy favorites with a 77.4% chance. So, not likely.
That same site gives the Oilers a 25.2% chance at finishing second ahead of Los Angeles. They need that 25.2%. The Oilers are more vulnerable than they were last season--they can't be giving out advantages to their biggest rivals.
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