2024 NHL Playoff Predictions: Who Moves Ahead in the East? Are Routs and Upsets in Store?

Adam Proteau's previews and in-depth predictions of each Eastern Conference first-round series bring some bold calls to start the NHL playoffs.

The NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs are just about here. In the case of the Eastern Conference, the post-season picture is now confirmed. 

As we do every season, we’ll analyze each of the four first-round series in each conference and give you our personal picks to move on to the second round.

(Playoff seedings in parentheses)

Why the Rangers could win: The Rangers won this season’s Presidents’ Trophy as the top team in the league through 82 games. Nothing we’ve seen from the Capitals, even in their late-season push to qualify for the playoffs, indicates that the Blueshirts are going to have problems with the Caps. 

The teams split their season series 2-2, but let’s be real here: the Rangers have the best goalie in the series in Igor Shesterkin, and they also have a far more potent offense (averaging 3.39 goals-for per game) than Washington (2.63 goals-for per game). 

The Rangers also have terrific special teams and the kind of depth the Capitals just don’t have. All things considered, this series should be a rout for the Rangers.

Why the Capitals could win: The only way we see the Capitals come anywhere close to winning this series is (a) if star winger Alexander Ovechkin puts them on his back and (b) goaltender Charlie Lindgren keeps his team close enough to steal a win or two. 

The Capitals have been in must-win mode for a while now. Although they will be dealing with a talented and motivated Rangers team, stranger things have happened than an upset in this series. We can’t see the Rangers stalling and failing in this matchup, but the Caps are under far less pressure to win than their opponents, and that may give them a leg up and allow them to stun the Rangers and send them home much sooner than they expected.

Who is going to win: Rangers, in five games

Who’s kidding who – the Rangers have so much skill and drive to win, they can deal with an injury or two if they pop up in this round and still be significantly better than Washington. 

If the Blueshirts do take on water and sink against the Capitals, there will be a significant change to their roster this summer. But we don’t think that will take place. In this round, at least, there’s no excuse for them not to beat the Caps.

Why the Panthers could win: The battle of Florida promises to be a grind for both sides. After their incredible run in the 2022-23 playoffs, the Panthers shouldn’t be underestimated by anyone. 

Florida was the NHL’s top defensive squad this season, averaging just 2.41 goals against per game. And they’ve received great goaltending from the tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz, so Panthers coach Paul Maurice should be confident his team can perform well against the Lightning. 

Florida went 2-1-0 against Tampa Bay this season, and in a series that could take the full seven games to decide a winner, there’s no reason the Cats can’t knock off the Bolts.

Why the Lightning could win: The Lightning cooled off this past week, but after the NHL trade deadline, they thrived and showed they still have gas left in the tank. 

After struggling in last year’s playoffs, star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy looks like himself again, which should terrify the Panthers. Tampa Bay has the pedigree, the balance, and the coaching to pull off an upset here, and we suspect they’ll narrowly nudge out Florida in this showdown.

Who is going to win: Tampa Bay, in seven games

One team here is going to leave seriously disappointed with their season, and another team is going to face either Toronto or Boston in the second round, so there’s no easy road for either side. But after the Lightning’s disappointing performance last spring against the Leafs, they’re determined to show their competitive window hasn’t closed. 

It will be a tough matchup for both sides, but ultimately, the Bolts have what it takes to beat their intra-state rival and move on to the next round.

Why the Hurricanes could win: There’s little question that, on paper at least, the Hurricanes are a far better team than the Islanders. 

Carolina went 2-1-1 against the Isles this season. While the Hurricanes may not have the best goaltender in the series, they do have capable veterans Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov to lean on. 

The Hurricanes’ offense is far superior to the Islanders’ offense, and Carolina’s defense corps is far superior to the Islanders’ group of defensemen. They're regarded as a legitimate Cup threat, while the Isles are really just happy to be in the post-season mix.

Why the Islanders could win: The Islanders have a star goalie in Ilya Sorokin, but if he struggles, veteran Semyon Varlamov has shown this season he’s capable of leading the Isles to victory. And if the boys from Long Island get big-time performances from star forwards Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, they can potentially upset the Hurricanes. 

GM Lou Lamoriello has doubled down on his group, and the Isles are the clear underdog, putting all the pressure on Carolina – a factor that ultimately could tip the scales in the Isles’ favor.

Who is going to win: Carolina, in five games

The Hurricanes nearly caught the Rangers in the race for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, but they’re getting a favorable matchup in the Islanders. 

It would be a true shocker if the Isles won three games in this series, let alone four. Carolina has bigger tests down the line this spring, but they have the overall depth, elite skill, and speed to take out the Isles with relative ease.

Why the Bruins could win: The clash of these two Original Six rivals promises to be one of the most emotional of the playoffs. Given that Boston won all four regular-season games this year, the Bruins should be regarded as the clear favorite. 

Their core still wants to avenge last season’s first-round exit against Florida, and the B's have the type of goaltending depth most other teams would kill for. Boston’s experience and coaching will put them in position to knock off the Leafs, and set up a showdown with either Florida or Tampa Bay in the second round.

Why the Maple Leafs could win: The Maple Leafs were swept in the season series with Boston, but the Bruins won the first two games after regulation time, so Toronto does have some cause for optimism. 

The big question is who’ll be in net for the Buds. Veteran Ilya Samsonov appears to be the starter for Game 1, but his subpar performance in recent regular-season games leaves the door open for youngster Joseph Woll to come in and establish himself as the No. 1 option. 

To say the Leafs have enormous pressure on them is a colossal understatement, but considering that most pundits are likely to have Boston as the favorite, the Leafs are in a place where they can shake off the shackles of expectation and emerge as the winner here.

Who is going to win: Toronto, in six games

Granted, this pick is an upset, but the Leafs shouldn’t be underestimated. They’ve got a deep, experienced group. While they’ll only go as far as their core four forwards take them, superstar center Auston Matthews has grown his game to new heights, and he very well could carry the Buds past the Bruins. 

Boston has the edge in goaltending, but Samsonov and/or Woll can keep Toronto in games. With some puck luck, the Leafs could prove to be much more of a handful than Boston is expecting. 

There’s not a lot of difference between the two teams, and that’s why we see the Leafs emerging as the victor.