Heading into each team's final round-robin game, a lot can still affect the Memorial Cup standings, including who advances straight to the final, whether there's a tiebreaker game and more. Here are the scenarios.
KELOWNA, B.C. - The 2026 Memorial Cup standings have the potential to turn into a complicated math equation.
At this point in the tournament, the only guarantees are that Kitchener has avoided the possibility of playing in a tiebreaker game, while Kelowna cannot secure a bye to the final based on round-robin results.
The final two games of the round-robin will see the Rangers battle the Sagueneens and the Silvertips take on the Rockets.
If the Rangers win, they will automatically head to the final. If Chicoutimi wins on Tuesday and Everett wins on Wednesday, the standings start to get a bit chaotic.
If the Rangers, Sagueneens and Silvertips all finish with a 2-1 record, the tiebreaking process would require a mathematical formula, since all three teams would have beaten each other so far in the tournament.
The equation is goals-for percentage (total goals-for plus total goals against, then divided by total goals-for), excluding the result against the Rockets. For example, if a team finishes with 15 goals scored and 14 goals conceded but beat the Rockets 2-1, their total would be 13 goals for and 13 goals against, which is a goals-for percentage of 50 percent.
In the above scenario, the standings would be determined by which team has the higher goals-for percentage. That team would get a bye to the final, while the other two would play in the semifinal. As for Kelowna, it would be 0-3 in this scenario and have its tournament come to a close.
The other complicated scenario involves Chicoutimi and Everett losing their next game.
If this happens, Kitchener would get a bye to the final, while a similar tiebreaker scenario would be used as listed above. The only difference is that instead of excluding goals scored for and conceded in games against the Rockets, what occurred against the first-place Rangers would not be counted.
There is also a scenario where the Sagueneens beat Kitchener on Tuesday, and the Silvertips lose to Kamloops on Wednesday.
If that happens, Chicoutimi would jump to the final as they have the tiebreaker over Kitchener, while the Rangers would head to the semifinal. As for Everett and Kelowna, they would play a back-to-back, with the Rockets serving as the home team in the tiebreaker game.
Lastly, if the Sagueneens lose on Tuesday night but the Silvertips win on Wednesday, those two will advance to the semifinal, while Kitchener will head straight to the final. Since the Silvertips defeated the Sagueneens 5-3 in their round-robin matchup, Everett would have home-ice advantage in the semifinal. In this scenario, there would also be no tiebreaker as Kelowna would finish 0-3.
In short, the Rangers control their destiny heading into their final game of the round-robin. A win sends them to the final, while a loss can create a complicated situation that involves a math equation.
Ultimately, the final two days of the round-robin will be intriguing, as no team has been mathematically eliminated from the tournament.
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