Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill Is Facing A Major Test With Jason Robertson's Next Contract

For a long time, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill was arguably the NHL's best manager of his team's payroll structure.

Whether it was locking up stars including Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen or Jake Oettinger to team-friendly contracts, Nill showed he knew how to retain his key players and keep the Stars' salary hierarchy in a good place.

However, in more recent years — and with the exponential rise of the salary cap ceiling — Nill has seen the bill come due for some of his other cornerstone assets.

Young blueliner Thomas Harley got an eight-year contract worth $10.5 million per season; star winger Mikko Rantanen received an eight-year deal worth $12 million per season. And this past summer, Nill signed sniper winger Jason Robertson to a one-year contract at $12 million after a lengthy negotiation process.

Although, that last solution is only temporary.

If that $12 million per season salary is an artificial ceiling for the Stars, Robertson is well on his way to demolishing it and setting a new financial benchmark.

The 27-year-old had a natural hat trick for the Stars on Tuesday against the Washington Capitals, giving him eight goals and 18 points in 15 games so far this year. That's a pace of 45 goals and 101 points in 84 games this season, which would be his best numbers in those departments since he generated 46 goals and 109 points in his 2022-23 campaign.

With every goal and point Robertson produces this year, his salary is going to rise well past the $15 million AAV territory. Reports last summer indicated Robertson rejected a contract of that exact salary from the Seattle Kraken as part of a sign-and-trade deal with Dallas.

So, given that Robertson will be one of the top-two UFA stars on the open market (along with Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov) this coming summer, what will he get on a long-term extension? $17 million per season? More than that?

Regardless of whether he chooses to walk away to a new team or stays in Dallas, it's clear Robertson will soon be one of the game's highest-paid players.

The other option, of course, is for Nill to trade Robertson, who doesn't have any protection in his contract for this season. But trading Robertson – who is tied with Rantanen as the Stars' top goal-scorer and point-producer – doesn't seem like the ideal solution for a team that ranks 24th in goals-for per game.

That said, Nill also can't afford to let Robertson leave for nothing in return.

If there's an internal budget Nill wants to adhere to, paying Robertson some $6-million more than the next highest-paid player on Dallas' roster could create a concerning locker room dynamic. We're not suggesting Robertson will be a $20-million player, but he's almost assuredly going to be closer to that amount than he is to the $15-million mark.

The Stars have more than enough cap room, as they're currently projected to have approximately $34.9 million in cap space next summer without any other high-cost free agents due for new contracts.

But as we're seeing with Kucherov's saga with the Bolts, even the sport's top players can run into a brick wall with the only organization they’ve ever known.

Nill didn't get named GM of the year for three consecutive seasons by accident. He's shown he can manage his cap situation well enough to give him a wealth of flexibility, but by the time Robertson gets a new extension — if he gets one in Dallas at all — the Stars' flexibility will be greatly reduced. 

Nill is either going to have to pony up in a major way to keep Roberson, or face a future without one of his most productive performers.

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