New York Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin and Tampa Bay Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy are close front-runners for the NHL's Vezina Trophy. Gary Pearson digs into who deserves it more for BetMGM.
The Vezina Trophy is almost assuredly going to either Ilya Sorokin or Andrei Vasilevskiy, with no other goaltender sporting an implied win probability of more than three percent, according to the hockey odds at BetMGM.
But which one of the proverbial brick walls will be named best goaltender for the 2025-26 season?
Ilya Sorokin (-179)
Sorokin hopes his dud against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday, in which he allowed seven goals on 28 shots, won’t linger in voters’ minds.
Fortunately for the New York Islanders’ ace, those uncharacteristic performances are as rare as a Chicago-style steak.
Sorokin is the -179 betting favorite to win the Vezina. Those odds represent a 64.16% implied win probability.
He’s the front-runner for a few reasons, including being the primary reason the Islanders are in a playoff spot. His body of work is exceptional, headlined by a league-best 29.7 goals saved above expected and seven shutouts.
The Islanders have a .580 points percentage with Sorokin between the pipes, as opposed to a .517 points percentage when he’s watching from the bench.
Andrei Vasilevskiy (+125)
Vasilevskiy has superior traditional stats: the most wins (35), the best save percentage among those with at least 40 starts (.912, tied with Logan Thompson and Igor Shesterkin) and the best goals-against average (2.32).
While the 2019 Vezina Trophy recipient has the fifth-best goals saved above expected (22.2), he has only mustered two shutouts.
The Lightning have a .712 points percentage when Vasilevskiy starts and a .545 points percentage without him.
Vasilevskiy was largely responsible for the team's turnaround, as the Lightning endured a 2-4-1 run when he was sidelined with an injury in early December. Upon returning to the lineup, he reeled off an absurd 17-1-1 run.
His +125 odds represent a 44.44 percent win probability.
Will Vasilevskiy Or Sorokin Win The Vezina?
Sorokin's .910 save percentage and 2.59 GAA don't jump off the page as Vezina-worthy numbers, at least superficially.
However, dig beneath the surface, and you'll see why he deserves to win his first Vezina.
Sorokin backstops a team that has conceded the fourth-most expected goals against and the most high-danger shots against, according to moneypuck.com. He has the best save percentage (.872) among starting goalies when facing high-danger shots.
Vasilevskiy, meanwhile, has a 0.776 save percentage against high-danger shots.
The Lightning netminder also has the privilege of backstopping one of the best collective defenses, which has allowed the eighth-fewest expected goals against and the eighth-fewest high-danger shots against.
Put it this way: Sorokin faces a bare-knuckle boxing fight against an agitated grizzly bear every time he takes the crease, while Vasilevskiy, as Connor McDavid so eloquently put it, gets a nightly pillow fight in comparison.
But here's the rub.
Since 1981-82, the year hGMs began voting for the Vezina Trophy, only one goaltender (Sergei Bobrovsky in 2013) has won the award without making the playoffs.
Has Sorokin been good enough to buck that trend, or will the Islanders make the playoffs, making it a moot point? I'm dubious about both.
By Gary Pearson, BetMGM