One decision made earlier this season has drastically affected the path for prospects to the NHL.

Since the November ruling allowing major junior players to play Div. I collegiate hockey, more than 170 CHL players, past and present, have committed to NCAA programs. Many of those commitments are players who will have aged out of junior hockey by next season. However, recently, the tide has shifted.

We’ve started to see younger players, including 2025 NHL draft eligibles, such as Jackson Smith, Cole Reschny and Jack Ivankovic, commit to NCAA programs for either next season or down the line. There are rumors about projected 2026 first overall pick and CHL player of the year, Gavin McKenna, heading to college hockey as well, but nothing has been confirmed yet.

While it is true that the early departures of the top talents from the OHL, QMJHL and WHL will lead to a decline in league strength at the top, these early departures may be best for hockey in general.

From a developmental perspective, the NCAA/CHL agreement solves one of the biggest issues in post-draft development: developmental stagnation.

Thanks to an agreement between the CHL and the AHL, NHL-signed major junior players may not jump up to play at the AHL level unless their junior team is eliminated from the playoffs. 

As such, this has created a bottleneck for players who are too good for the junior level, but not quite polished enough for the NHL. Some recent examples of this include players like Shane Wright (Seattle) and Matt Savoie (Edmonton) whose improvement seemed to slow or halt altogether in their return to juniors after their respective drafts.

While dominating can provide a player with confidence, hence why coaches may toss a struggling youngster down to the AHL for a few weeks, the agreement between the AHL and the CHL doesn’t allow for the NHL team to call them back up that season once the player has returned to juniors. So when these prospects get their confidence back, they are no longer being challenged and they have no path forward to move to the next level.

This grants players the opportunity to move to the next level when things get too easy, allowing them to get used to a faster-paced and tactical game against more physically mature players.

This move doesn’t just help players on the ice, but off the ice as well. For many years, players have had to sacrifice or postpone their post-secondary academic pursuits to maintain the opportunity to play in the top junior leagues in the world. That is no longer necessary. As a result of this change, players will also benefit from higher scholarship options and name, image and likeness deals to mitigate the financial incentive to leave for professional hockey before they are ready.

Another aspect that this rule change may improve is parity within the major junior leagues. Teams like the Memorial Cup-champion London Knights and Everett Silvertips have spent the better part of the last decade and a half at the top of their leagues. An early out for older players may prevent teams from hogging superstars, increasing league parity and potentially speeding up the championship window.

Despite all of these positives, there are some notable downsides to the move.

Namely, star producers and fan favorites will likely leave junior hockey early. However, the floor of these leagues has been and will continue to rise, as more high-end Jr. A players from leagues such as the AJHL, NAHL and USHL, who avoided the CHL to ensure they retain NCAA eligibility, can make their way to the CHL for the chance to play at a higher level of competition. Even players from the BCHL, a Jr. A league that left Hockey Canada to run independently, can head to the CHL and NCAA.

Despite these issues, it’s hard not to see the deal’s benefits. While it may hurt the CHL as the leagues adjust to meet the new supply and demand, it solidifies the CHL as the premier path to the next level, whether that’s the NCAA or the NHL.

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