It’s down to the wire, but Nikita Kucherov may have the upper hand over Nathan MacKinnon once again in the chase for the NHL’s 2025 Art Ross Trophy.
For the second-straight year, it’s a two-horse race. While the Colorado Avalanche's MacKinnon has been in the pole position since early December, the Tampa Bay Lightning's Kucherov is making things interesting.
Last year, Kucherov’s late-season surge got him to 144 points and the second Art Ross of his career. MacKinnon settled for second place with a personal best of 140 points but did enough to earn the votes that beat Kucherov for the Hart Trophy by a significant margin.
MacKinnon also came out on top when the two went head-to-head in the 2022 Stanley Cup final. He outscored Kucherov six points to four in the final on the way to his first championship, after Kucherov won Cups in 2020 and 2021.
After Kucherov picked up an assist in the Lightning’s overtime loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday, the Art Ross race is a dead heat.
Here’s a look at the lay of the land for both players.
Stats Through April 10
- Nikita Kucherov: 74 games, 116 points, 1.57 points per game
- Nathan MacKinnon: 79 games, 116 points, 1.47 points per game
- Leon Draisaitl: 71 games, 106 points, 1.49 points per game
Kucherov holds the edge in points per game but missed four matches this season due to various ailments. Draisaitl was also in the Art Ross mix until he was slowed by late-season injuries.
Meanwhile, MacKinnon hasn’t missed a game for the Avalanche since New Year’s Eve of 2022. His 209 consecutive games played have him 30th among active players.
Recent Trends
MacKinnon is currently riding an eight-game point streak, which dates back to March 25. He has 4-7-11 during that time.
The Avalanche are 5-2-1 in their last eight games. With three games to go, they’re all but locked into third place in the Central Division.
Kucherov recently went without a point in the Lightning’s 2-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators on April 3. But he has five multi-point games in his last eight games, with four goals, 14 assists and 18 points in that span. That’s how he closed the gap.
The Lightning are 5-1-2 in their last eight games. With four games to go, they’ve been fighting it out with Toronto and the Florida Panthers for first place in the Atlantic Division.
Adjusting on the Fly
Both players hit personal career highs in goals and assists last season. This year, MacKinnon’s scoring rate has dipped while Kucherov has seen a bigger drop-off with his helpers. Now, their stat lines are almost identical.
Nathan MacKinnon:
2023-24: 51 goals, 89 assists, 140 points 2024-25: 32 goals, 84 assists, 116 points
Nikita Kucherov:
2023-24: 44 goals, 100 assists, 144 points 2024-25: 34 goals, 82 assists, 116 points
Both players are going into the playoffs in fresh circumstances. MacKinnon is missing longtime linemate Mikko Rantanen, while Kucherov carries on without power-play ace Steven Stamkos.
New arrivals Martin Necas and Jake Guentzel are different players than their predecessors. Both have been effective while stepping into some very big shoes.
Kucherov’s Schedule
Kucherov holds the opportunity advantage. The Lightning have four games remaining, while the Avs have only three.
The Lightning also play three of their four remaining games at home.
Both players will be taking on mostly non-playoff teams, but there’s no guarantee that those games will be easy. Every opponent will still game-plan to shut down one of the NHL’s top scorers.
Tampa Bay Lightning
April 11 vs. Detroit
April 13 vs. Buffalo
April 15 vs. Florida
April 17 at New York Rangers
This season, Kucherov has six points in three games against the Red Wings, three points in two games against the Sabres, one point in three games against the Panthers and six points in two games against the Rangers. Those are small sample sizes, but if those scoring rates hold, he’d pick up about six more points to finish at 122.
Zoom out to Kucherov’s career scoring rates against those four teams, and you’re looking at about 1.25 points per game. That works out to five points over the remaining four games, to finish at 121.
MacKinnon’s Schedule
The Avalanche will have more time to rest up before the playoffs begin. But they’ll finish the year on the road in California on Sunday.
Colorado Avalanche
April 10 vs. Vancouver
April 12 at Los Angeles
April 13 at Anaheim
MacKinnon has no points in two games against the Canucks this year, but has four assists in two games against the Kings and five points in two games against the Ducks. Those averages would give him four-and-a-half points in his final three games. Let’s be generous and round it up to five to give him 121.
In his career, MacKinnon has averaged about 1.11 points per game against the Canucks, Kings and Ducks. That would give him 3.33 points in his final three games to finish at 119.
It looks like the race will be tight. For MacKinnon, the waiting could be the hardest part. Even if he sits first after his last game on Sunday, he’ll have to wait to see if Kucherov can catch him over his final two games.
Milestone Watch
While MacKinnon logged his 1,000th-career point in March, Kucherov is right behind him as the next man up. Currently at 989 points, is there any chance he’ll power up to try to get there before the playoffs start? It’d take nearly three points a game, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility for one of hockey’s most consistent offensive talents.
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