As the last quarter of the NHL season arrives, there's still not much doubt about the Hart Trophy favorite this season. But the top contenders on the Avalanche, Oilers, Sharks, Lightning and Islanders all have had incredible campaigns.
With the passing of the NHL trade deadline last Friday, there has been plenty of change and turnover.
What hasn't changed is the status of the NHL's superstars, still performing at the highest level.
As the 2025-26 regular season winds down to the final quarter, the front-runners for each NHL award are beginning to narrow down.
With the Hart Trophy, awarded "to the player adjudged to be the most valuable to his team," there are several worthy candidates who could interchange in terms of who is most deserving.
Here are my top five front-runners for the Hart Trophy, as of March 10.
5. Ilya Sorokin, G, New York Islanders
Ilya Sorokin is a constant presence in the Vezina Trophy rankings, as he is one of, if not the, best goaltenders in the NHL this season.
As he continues to battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy for the Vezina, the New York Islanders' puckstopper has made a case for being mentioned in the Hart Trophy race.
The Islanders have been transformed from last year to this season. A part of that has to do with the introduction of Calder Trophy favorite Matthew Schaefer and strong seasons by Bo Horvat and Mat Barzal. But Sorokin has provided stability between the pipes.
Sorokin, 30, has a .914 save percentage, 2.50 goals-against average and a league-leading six shutouts. He also has a 23-14-2 record in 39 appearances this year, and he leads the NHL in goals saved above expected, according to moneypuck.com.
BetMGM Hart Trophy odds: 501.00/+50000
4. Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
It's weird to see Connor McDavid sitting fourth on this list.
Although he leads the NHL in points with 108, made up of 35 goals and 73 assists, the definition of the Hart Trophy holds him back. The winner is defined as the most valuable player to his team, and while he is the Oilers' MVP, he doesn't necessarily steer the ship on his own.
Past Hart Trophy winner Leon Draisaitl and star defenseman Evan Bouchard have been by McDavid's side. They aren't far behind McDavid in terms of scoring, as Draisaitl has 92 points, and Bouchard leads all blueliners with 73 points.
BetMGM Hart Trophy odds: 9.50/+850
3. Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks
Even seeing San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini listed third in the ranking could be controversial, considering what he's done this season.
It's beyond impressive what the 19-year-old has been able to do in the NHL this season. He's fifth in the NHL in scoring with 32 goals and 57 assists for 89 points. The second-highest scorer on his team is Will Smith, with 44 points, who has been on Celebrini's right wing.
Celebrini leads the Sharks in scoring by 45 points, a gap like no other across the NHL.
If Celebrini can also drag his Sharks into the playoffs this season, there's a great chance that he'll be the youngest player to win the Hart Trophy since Sidney Crosby in 2007.
BetMGM Hart Trophy odds: 9.00 (+800)
2. Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Nikita Kucherov has been one of the league's most talented players for the past few years.
This season has been no different for the Russian superstar. He has 34 goals and 69 helpers for 103 points in 58 games. It's the fourth straight year in which he's reached the century mark, and he's within reach of claiming his third-straight Art Ross Trophy.
Kucherov leads the Lightning in scoring by 36 points, with left winger Jake Guentzel next in line with 67 points. Kucherov has seven points in his last two contests, putting him on track to sniff his career high of 144 points in 2023-24.
BetMGM Hart Trophy odds: 3.40/+240
1. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche
It's been fairly challenging for players to knock off Nathan MacKinnon as the favorite to win the Hart Trophy this season.
The Colorado Avalanche superstar has done it all this year, leading his team to a likely Presidents' Trophy. They're also the heaviest favorite to win the Stanley Cup, according to BetMGM.
Colorado's position as the league's most dominant team is largely due to MacKinnon's performance this year. He's second in the league in scoring and first in goals with 43 tallies and 104 points.
Even on a team with multiple superstars, such as defenseman Cale Makar and right winger Martin Necas, MacKinnon has a healthy scoring lead over his teammates. Necas is second in Avalanche scoring with 76 points, a 28-point difference from MacKinnon.
How can MacKinnon not be the Hart Trophy favorite with all he's done for the Avalanche this year?
BetMGM Hart Trophy odds: 1.56/-180
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