Here are four players who could be expected to take a step back in offensive production for 2026-27 after having a standout campaign in 2025-26.
A breakout season can come in all sorts of different situations. Typically, it's in the context of a younger player growing substantially and having a strong season that should outline the rest of their NHL career.
It can also come in the form of a player breaking out for a new team, even if they are an aging veteran.
As impressive as these stars were during the 2025-26 season, the next question is whether they can sustain that level of production going into next season.
Here are four players who exceeded expectations last season but may struggle to repeat those numbers in 2026-27.
Brad Marchand, LW, Florida Panthers
Age does not affect every NHL player the same way, but for Florida Panthers left winger Brad Marchand, who is entering his 18th season as a 38-year-old, a slight decline would not be surprising. Even at his ripe age, his regular-season performance this past year could be considered a breakout in the context of being a Panther.
After dealing with several lower-body injuries throughout his career, including major hip surgeries, the veteran may begin to show signs of wear.
Marchand played 52 games this past season while producing over a point-per-game pace, recording 54 points before being placed on long-term injured reserve on March 18, ending his regular season.
He also represented Canada at the 2026 Winter Olympics, marking his first appearance at the Games. Entering the tournament while managing an upper-body injury, Marchand was relied upon less as a primary offensive producer and more as a veteran presence.
With long playoff runs or international competition adding extra mileage, the Panthers could choose to manage his workload more carefully throughout the coming season. While his competitiveness has never been in question, maintaining this past season’s offensive pace at 38 will be a difficult task.
Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars
After a breakout season in which he scored 45 goals and 86 points at just 23 years old, Wyatt Johnston appears to be one of the NHL’s rising stars. However, several underlying numbers suggest some regression could be on the horizon for the Dallas Stars center.
With 27 goals on the power play in 2025-26, over half of Johnston’s tallies came on the man advantage, making him heavily reliant on special teams for a significant portion of his offensive production. If Dallas’ power play cools off or his opportunities with the man advantage decrease, his goal totals could naturally decline.
Johnston also posted a remarkable 32.5 shooting percentage on the power play compared to his career average of 23 percent. His overall shooting percentage climbed to 21.8 percent, a figure that is historically difficult to sustain in today’s NHL.
Despite setting the Stars franchise record for power-play goals, Johnston scored just 18 goals at even strength. Unless his even-strength production continues to grow, a decline in power-play efficiency could result in lower overall offensive totals next season.
Morgan Geekie, RW, Boston Bruins
Morgan Geekie is another player whose shooting numbers suggest regression could be coming. The Boston Bruins right winger's shooting percentage climbed to 21.5 percent, well above his career average going into 2025-26, which was 14.6 percent.
Scoring on nearly one-quarter of his shot attempts is an exceptionally difficult pace to maintain over consecutive seasons. As opponents become more familiar with his offensive tendencies, maintaining that level of efficiency becomes increasingly challenging, particularly on the power play.
Geekie has already proven doubters wrong once, following up his 33-goal campaign in 2024-25 with a career-best 39 goals and 68 points this past season. However, if his shooting percentage returns closer to his career norm and he receives fewer high-danger scoring opportunities, matching those totals will be a significant challenge.
The question now becomes whether he can once again outperform expectations or if regression will finally catch up to him.
Steven Stamkos, LW, Nashville Predators
Steven Stamkos is entering next season as a 36-year-old, coming off an impressive 42-goal campaign that saw him break out offensively for the first time since joining the Nashville Predators. However, several indicators suggest matching that production could prove difficult.
His 20.4 shooting percentage was the highest of his 18-year career, well above the approximately 16.8 percent mark he has maintained throughout most of it. While elite goal scorers often finish above league average, sustaining a career-best shooting percentage into his mid-30s is a daunting expectation.
Entering his third season with the Predators, Stamkos has increasingly settled into the role of a pure finisher with this team. While he continued to score at an elite rate, his assist totals remained modest, providing 24 this past season after posting 26 the year before. That trend suggests his offensive value has become more dependent on converting scoring chances than creating them.
If his shooting percentage regresses closer to his career average and his shot volume does not increase, a decline in goal production would not be surprising next season.
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