The latest early post-season exit by the Toronto Maple Leafs sparked considerable media conjecture suggesting big changes could be coming this off-season.
Leafs Nation has heard these predictions before, only to see moves that changed very little. This time, however, the prospect of significant change seems very real, potentially spelling the end of the “Core Four” era.
Those four, of course, are high-priced forwards Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Mitch Marner and John Tavares.
The consensus among the punditry is that Marner won't be back.
The Hockey News’ Michael Traikos says it’s an obvious choice to break up the core, even if that means letting Marner walk for nothing. There’s also the challenge of deciding whether to re-sign Tavares and trying to get Matthew Knies to commit long-term.
Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun doesn't expect the Leafs to break the bank to keep Marner. The Athletic's James Mirtle pointed to the 28-year-old right winger’s unwillingness to negotiate an extension this season and management's attempt to move him at the trade deadline. Mirtle's colleague, Chris Johnston, believes Marner wants a fresh start after bearing disproportionate blame for the Leafs' lousy playoff record.
As for Tavares, he wants to stay in Toronto and knows he must accept a pay cut from his current average annual value of $11 million. However, Hornby pointed out he'll be 35 next season, and the veteran center's idea of a pay cut might not align with that of management's. Mirtle suggested that it might not make sense to invest in Tavares, given his limited 5-on-5 post-season production.
Hornby also noted that rising star Matthew Knies completed his entry-level contract, becoming an RFA without arbitration rights. He could be a tempting offer-sheet target for another club, but the Leafs' projected $26.8 million of cap space for next season gives them plenty of space to match, especially if Marner and Tavares depart via free agency.
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