Olympic Men's Hockey: Predicting The Gold And Bronze Medal Games

We're now down to the final two teams battling for gold in the 2026 Olympic men's hockey tournament.

And we're still doing fairly well in the Olympic predictions department. After going 3-for-4 in our qualifying round picks and 3-for-4 in our quarterfinal round predictions, we went 2-for-2 in our semifinal picks to be 8-for-10 overall. 

To be honest, it wasn't that difficult to predict that Team Canada and Team USA would be there battling it out at the end of the tournament. These were always the two best teams on paper, so no one should be surprised to see the Americans and Canadians face off for gold at 8:10 a.m. ET on Sunday.

Both Canada and the U.S. had some scary moments in their Olympic ride, but both rebounded well to secure at least a silver medal.

Without further ado, here are this writer's predictions for the gold medal game between Canada and the United States and Saturday's bronze medal match between Slovakia and Finland.

Prediction: Canada beat USA 4-3

The Canadians' road to the gold medal game has been bumpier than any Canadian would've liked.

Canada trailed in the quarterfinal against Czechia and in the semifinal against Finland. But Canada's incredible depth – and yes, some timely goaltending from Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues – allowed them to dig out of early deficits and find ways to win.

Meanwhile, the U.S. squad got stronger with every game it played, knocking off Sweden in a tight 2-1 overtime game in the quarterfinals, then stomping on the upstart Slovakian squad 6-2 on Friday.

The Americans have received terrific goaltending from Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, and their offense has been spread out throughout the lineup, with 15 different U.S. players posting at least two points through their five Olympic games thus far.

You can see, then, why the U.S. and Canada game is essentially a pick'em showdown.

We're talking about the two deepest, best teams in the tourney. And while we've long argued that the U.S. is the right choice to win gold at these Olympics, we're going to exercise our right to change our mind, and we're choosing the Canadians to win this gold medal game.

Regardless of whether Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby is healthy enough to play in the gold medal final, Canada has shown they can impose their will on games via any number of competitors. 

And Binnington has shown he can bend but not break, giving his Canadian teammates a chance to pull out a victory. It's going to be a tight gold medal game, but in the end, we think Canada's high-end talent will do just that much more than their American rivals do. And that will give Canada the gold in a one-goal game that could easily come down to the final few minutes of action.

Prediction: Finland beat Slovakia 2-0

The Finnish and Slovakian teams got to the bronze medal game, taking vastly different paths in the semifinals.

Finland narrowly lost to Canada 3-2, while Slovakia was blown out.

The Slovaks have had an excellent tournament to get to this point, beating the Finns, Italians and Germans. But they're now going to face a Finland team in the bronze game that looks much different from the one they beat in the first round-robin game.

Team Finland has shown it can put the clamps on just about any opponent, and that's what we expect in this bronze medal game. In four of their five Olympic games, the Finns allowed three goals or fewer. And Finland is chock-full of NHL-level talent in a way that Slovakia just isn't. 

That's not to say there's not potential for an upset in the Slovaks' favor in the bronze game. But it is to say the Finns have the manpower and the drive to frustrate Slovakia and take advantage of a couple of scoring opportunities to eke out a narrow victory over the Slovaks. Indeed, it could be a 1-0 score in this game before an empty-net marker seals the deal for Finland. 

In any case, we expect a spirited battle in this game. Every team wants to be on the Olympic podium, so the Finns will have every motivation to outlast Slovakia and finish in third place in the tournament. And with due respect to the Slovaks, this is a game Team Finland should win.

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