The Toronto Maple Leafs had their way with Sergei Bobrovsky for most of their series against the Florida Panthers. That changed in Game 4.
Although the Leafs had a chance to take a 3-1 series lead and a stranglehold on the series, Bobrovsky stood on his head with a 22-save shutout to tie the series at 2-2.
He recorded 2.63 goals saved above expected in the game, which takes into account the quality of chances he faced, according to moneypuck.com.
If Bobrovsky keeps up his play, he could be a game-changer in this series. He backstopped the Panthers to two straight Stanley Cup finals, winning it all last year, and he has two Vezina Trophy wins in his career, after all.
That said, we don’t expect him to keep it up. Drawing conclusions solely from arguably his best game of the playoffs and the 36-year-old's history doesn’t account for the tale of two Bobrovsky's, where his subpar play has appeared more often than his superstar play this post-season.
Before Game 4, Bobrovsky was far from ideal. In five of his nine playoff games, Bobrovsky posted a save percentage below .900. He has a .888 save percentage overall.
The Panthers eliminated the Tampa Bay Lightning in five games, and Bobrovsky did record a shutout in Game 2. But his .901 SP in that round wasn’t outstanding, and it was tied for the sixth-best among goalies who played at least four games. Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy had a ghastly .872 SP, which was second-worst in that group of netminders, so Bobrovsky was good enough but not much of a difference-maker.
Bobrovsky’s save percentage in the second round is at Vasilevskiy's level in the first round, at .875. That’s after the Game 4 shutout. He’s still at minus-1.6 goals saved above expected, the fourth-worst among goalies who played at least five games this post-season.
It helps that the Panthers have the third-lowest goals-against average in the playoffs, at 2.78. They’re allowing the second-fewest shots per game, at 24, and they have scored the fourth-most goals-for per game, at 3.67.
While Bobrovsky was marginally better during the regular season (.906 SP, 2.44 GAA), the Panthers gave him a $10-million cap hit because they expect Bobrovsky to be a needle-mover when games matter most.
Right now, the needle-movers are the rest of the team trying to take the game out of Bobrovsky’s hands with the second-fewest shots per game, at 24, and the fourth-most goals-for per game, at 3.67.
Toronto Maple Leafs Must Make This Series A Track Meet, Not An MMA Fight
When Max Domi of the Toronto Maple Leafs hit Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers into the boards from behind in the dying seconds of the Panthers' 2-0 win in Game 4, he undoubtedly thought he was sending the Panthers a message.
There’s still time for Bobrovsky to impose his will on the Leafs series, the way he did in Game 4. But there’s clearly a scouting book out on him. Count how many times the Leafs shoot high-glove-hand on him, and you’ll be counting for quite some time.
If you’re going to praise Bobrovsky when things go right, you have to criticize him when things don’t go right. If the Maple Leafs overwhelm him the way they did in Games 1 and 2 of this series, he’ll likely be exposed for his more frequent subpar play, and the Panthers could be going home.
He has time to fight back and prove he can still be a difference-maker in a good way for the Panthers. But time is of the essence, and he’s battling a very potent Leafs team that has made other veteran goalies look ill-equipped for the job. Time will tell how he responds to this latest challenge, but regardless of how it plays out, watching Bobrovsky try to recapture his Cup-winning form will be compelling viewing indeed.
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