With the NHL’s salary cap set to jump from $88 million to $95 million next season and likely much higher in the years to come, teams are adjusting their approach to contracts, and the sticker shock is real.
Take the Edmonton Oilers, for example. The team is reportedly eyeing an eight-year extension for forward Trent Frederic worth between $3.5 million and $4 million annually. On the surface, that looks like an overpay for a player with Frederic’s current production and role. But a closer look at what the Oilers are trying to do here suggests they’re adjusting for salary inflation. There is risk involved in this deal, but Edmonton is trying to get ahead of the curve.
In today’s $88-million cap world, a $4 million salary eats up about 4.5 percent of a team’s total space. With the cap expected to hit $95 million next season and potentially exceed $104 million within two years and $115 million the year after, locking in a mid-tier player at that number could look like a bargain down the line. Teams aren’t just paying for the player – they’re paying for future value relative to cap growth.
Another example is Brad Marchand’s next contract, and the projections by The Athletic’s Chris Johnston and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman of a three- or four-year contract worth about $8 million annually.
Yes, Marchand was underpaid in his final seasons with the Boston Bruins. That doesn’t change the fact he will be 37 next season and is projected to fetch the largest cap hit of his career by some margin. He may need to take less to remain in Florida, but even this projection highlights how drastically player values are changing.
Meanwhile, Sam Bennett, whose 51 points this past season were a career high, could reportedly get between $7 million and $8 million per year or more if he hits the open market. His strong post-season play boosted his profile, but that number would have seemed outrageous even a year ago.
Would the Oilers be thrilled to get Evan Bouchard locked in to a long-term deal at anything under $11 million per season? According to TSN’s Ryan Rishaug, it sounds like it.
These deals are just a few examples, and we might be looking at the new normal.
Players are generally going to get a lot more than they ever have, and that’s going to create a real sense of sticker shock for fans and other GMs or agents who use comparables to value their players.
The question isn’t just whether these players are worth the money. It’s how teams value contracts under a cap that’s poised to grow faster than ever before. Could a 34-year-old John Tavares get at least $7 million annually? Might Brock Boeser crack $8 million per year despite past inconsistencies? If it happens, the rising cap will be the reason.
For fans, it will take some adjusting. What looks like an overpayment today might be a bargain in two seasons.
The NHL is entering an expensive new phase. Teams will be making bets in an attempt to predict solid value, not today, but in the years to come.
Some teams are going to strike out. Others will hit home runs. Part of the issue is that it will be difficult to distinguish between them immediately. It could take years before the actual value of some of the deals coming down the pipe presents itself.
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