Even if the Toronto Maple Leafs finish with the league's fifth-worst record, there's no guarantee they'll get to keep their pick instead of giving it to the Boston Bruins.
The Toronto Maple Leafs' worst season in a decade could get worse.
Given that Toronto traded its 2026 first-round pick to the Boston Bruins – and that the pick is top-five protected – some Leafs fans are looking only for the team to finish in the bottom five of the NHL standings so the B's receive Toronto's 2027 first-rounder instead.
But finishing as the fifth-worst team in the league is not a guarantee the Leafs will hang onto their first-rounder and pick in the top five this summer.
Remember, there's a draft lottery not just for the top pick, but for the second overall pick as well. Whoever wins a lottery draw can move up to 10 picks in the draft order.
If the Leafs finish fifth-last in the standings and any team sitting sixth-worst to 12th-worst wins one of those lottery draws, that would bump the Buds down in the draft order – and that would mean the pick goes to the Bruins.
You see how this could be a full-on disaster for the Leafs, right? Not only would they shockingly miss the playoffs, but they wouldn't even get to use their own draft pick to speed up a retool.
It might sting Leafs fans a little less if Toronto had the seventh, eighth or ninth pick in the draft and had to give the pick to Boston. But if they have to give the sixth pick to the Bruins, it would be the most devastating finish possible for Leafs Nation.
Of course, the Leafs could also win a lottery draw and end up with a top-two pick as long as they finish in the bottom 12 of the NHL.
But the truth is, the Leafs should be aiming to finish with the third-worst record in the league.
That would mean that, even if two teams ahead of them in the standings win the draft lotteries, they'd finish no lower than fifth overall in the draft and keep their pick.
However, the Calgary Flames are third-last and have five fewer points than Toronto does.
The Flames have a game in hand on the Maple Leafs, so it's not out of the question that they can finish ahead of Toronto. But it would take the Leafs losing their remaining three games in regulation and the Flames winning three of their four games to get to that point. Not likely, in other words.
The New York Rangers, meanwhile, sit fourth-last, and they're three points behind the Leafs.
So if the Maple Leafs fall behind the Blueshirts and finish with the fourth-worst record, that would mean they could withstand one team ahead of them in the standings winning the first or second pick in the draft lottery and not have to give up their pick to the Bruins.
But even then, there's a possibility that two teams ahead of Toronto win both draft lotteries, and the Leafs will have to give Boston the sixth pick after all. Just look back to last year, when the New York Islanders (10th-last) and Utah Mammoth (14th-last) won both draws.
The truth is, the Leafs are going to need some divine help from the hockey gods to avoid surrendering their pick to the Bruins. And that's why finishing fifth not only doesn't guarantee Toronto will retain its pick – it would position the squad for a devastating finish to a devastating year.
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