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The Toronto Maple Leafs hit the jackpot when they won the 2026 NHL draft lottery and picked star winger Gavin McKenna first overall. But in his first year in the harsh glare of the Toronto spotlight, what are fair expectations for McKenna?

With the NHL’s training camps fast approaching, there’s already a considerable amount of pressure on Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Gavin McKenna before he’s played a single regular-season shift.

Fair or unfair, as the first-overall pick in this year’s entry draft, McKenna has high expectations on him from Day 1 of his career. But what are the realistic expectations for McKenna in his rookie season?

First of all, let’s establish that McKenna is coming into the NHL as a top-six forward. He wasn’t the No. 1 draft pick because of his high-end defensive skills. He wasn’t the top pick because he’s a worker bee destined for the third or fourth line.

The Maple Leafs must give McKenna Grade-A opportunities to show he’s a Grade-A player, even if the results may not happen right off the bat.

Still, given that McKenna will play on Toronto’s first or second line, it’s not unfair to expect him to put up points at a 0.50 points-per-game pace.

Ideally, new Maple Leafs coach Jim Hiller will want McKenna’s points to come from his fantastic playmaking ability, and that means producing far more assists than goals. If McKenna jump-starts Leafs captain Auston Matthews’ goal-scoring prowess on the first line by setting him up in a way former Leafs star right winger Mitch Marner used to do for Matthews, Toronto GM John Chayka and his management team will be thrilled with McKenna.

That said, let’s stress that McKenna is still just 18 years old and that he should be afforded time and patience as he acclimates to hockey’s top league. McKenna needed an adaptation process when he moved from the WHL to the NCAA this past season, and he might need time to figure out where he fits on a Leafs team desperately trying to get back into the Stanley Cup playoffs this coming season.

So don’t be surprised to see Hiller protecting McKenna in terms of minutes and zone usage. If Hiller uses McKenna on power plays and keeps him away from an abundance of defensive zone play, he’ll be feeding into McKenna’s strengths and building his confidence as he rounds out his game.

Whether that comes with McKenna playing with Matthews and Matthew Knies on the first line, or whether that comes with him on the second line with John Tavares and William Nylander, the bottom line is that McKenna is going to be playing with extremely talented linemates, and the expectations on him will rise accordingly.

In addition, Hiller may choose to use McKenna prominently in 3-on-3 and 4-on-4 play, when there’s more time and space for McKenna to take advantage of. Is it easy to picture McKenna coming out with Matthews and Nylander in 3-on-3 overtime? How potent will Toronto be with McKenna’s vision and craftiness on its side in OT?

What about shootouts? With only himself and the opposition’s goaltender standing in the way of two standings points, McKenna and his terrific creativity when he has no defenders means he could help deliver crucial standings points as Toronto fights to get back in the playoff picture in the hyper-aggressive Atlantic Division.

McKenna could be a shootout specialist, and shootout points could be the difference between the Leafs making or missing the playoffs. Thus, it’s no exaggeration to say McKenna could be a difference-maker right out of the gate as Toronto aims for the post-season.

Regardless, we believe McKenna will be one of the Maple Leafs’ key contributors next season. From this writer’s perspective, we’d expect McKenna to produce anywhere from 40-65 points in his rookie season.

Anything above-and-beyond that will be gravy. But if McKenna averages less than a half-point-per game, Leafs brass are going to be disappointed, whether they admit it or not. Fair or unfair, that’s just the reality of McKenna’s situation.

The Maple Leafs did a great job protecting Matthews, Nylander and Marner as they found their footing and emerged as needle-movers. That’s what’s called for with McKenna. Toronto doesn’t need McKenna to win the Calder Trophy as the best rookie, although it would be nice for McKenna to win the same award Matthews won in his freshman season.

But if McKenna emerges as a fixture alongside Matthews, Nylander, Knies and Tavares, the Leafs will be ecstatic they won the draft lottery and the right to employ McKenna.

You must be a special player to be picked first overall, and McKenna will get to show it with the intense spotlight that comes with playing in hockey’s biggest market. The Maple Leafs don’t have an easy road getting back in the playoffs, but if McKenna develops as hoped, Leafs Nation will fully embrace him as a major piece of Toronto’s puzzle.

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