What Could The Maple Leafs Do To Justify Trading Away Fraser Minten?

In news that likely won’t sit well with Toronto Maple Leafs fans, Boston Bruins center and former Maple Leaf prospect Fraser Minten was named the NHL’s rookie of the month for January after leading all rookies with eight goals in January and tying the rookie league in points (14) in the past month.

Minten now has 14 goals and 29 points in 57 games this season, and he’s looking like he’s going to be a fixture for the Bruins for many years to come.

Maple Leafs supporters are looking at Minten thriving in Beantown while the player he was traded for – veteran defenseman Brandon Carlo – hasn’t been on any highlight reels since arriving in Toronto at last year’s NHL trade deadline.

But the Leafs didn’t acquire Carlo to challenge for the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top point-getter. They acquired him to keep the Buds competitive and strong in their own zone. And while he’s struggled with consistency in that regard, Carlo has had flashes of what the Maple Leafs were looking for when they traded Minten for him.

That said, nearly a year after Carlo was acquired, it’s a fair question to ask what it’s going to take for Leafs GM Brad Treliving to look justified in making the Carlo-for-Minten swap. And from this writer’s perspective, two possible outcomes will make Toronto look wise in acquiring Carlo.

The first outcome is Treliving trading Carlo by this year’s March 6 trade deadline, and landing a first-round draft pick or a high-end prospect in return. It doesn’t have to be a 2026 first-rounder that Treliving acquires, although that would be ideal given that the Leafs will surrender their 2026 first-rounder to the Bruins if it does not land in the top five, in addition to including Minten in the Carlo transaction. 

However, if Toronto can pick up a first-rounder in the next three drafts, Treliving can cut his losses by at least bringing back a top draft pick. In the big picture, the Leafs will have taken a loss if they don’t get back a first-rounder and a prospect for Carlo, but at least a first-rounder will mitigate the hard feelings Leafs fans currently have regarding the Minten trade.

But there’s another way the Leafs can soften the sting of giving up on Minten – and that’s by keeping Carlo over the long term and signing him to a contract extension at a team-friendly price. As it stands, Carlo is signed through next season at an annual salary of $3.485 million due to salary retention by the Bruins, as his original cap hit is $4.1 million.

Four Leafs blueliners – Morgan Rielly, Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson – are under contract through the 2027-28 campaign, so adding the 29-year-old Carlo to that list, at a cost of between $4-6 million per season on a three- or four-year extension, would be a coup for Treliving.

There is one caveat to re-signing Carlo: getting him to re-sign without giving him a no-trade or no-move clause. Currently, the Leafs have handed out some form of no-trade clause to Rielly, Tanev, McCabe, and Ekman-Larsson, and it would be terrible for Toronto’s trade flexibility to make it five defensemen with no-trade clauses.

It might cost Treliving more to re-sign Carlo without a no-trade clause, but that would be the price to keep him in Blue & White. If things don’t go well for the Leafs during Carlo’s contract extension years, they’d have every opportunity to move Carlo in a trade and recoup some assets for him.

Keeping Carlo around beyond next season would go a long way toward justifying the Maple Leafs’ trade for him.

If he doesn’t want to re-sign and remain a Leaf, then moving him at this year’s deadline for at least a first-rounder would be the best road ahead for Treliving & Co., but allowing him to leave for nothing as a free agent in the summer of 2027 would be a disaster.

Carlo hasn’t been a total abomination in his first year in Toronto, but the Leafs were hoping for more than that from him. One way or another, Leafs brass has to show Leafs Nation that the Carlo trade will have some lasting positive effect for the Buds. Minten is on track to have a productive NHL career, and the Maple Leafs need to come away from trading him with one type of benefit or another.

Otherwise, Leafs fans will be justified in being outraged that Treliving surrendered a promising NHLer for a player who never found his footing in Leafs Land.

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