Following a disastrous 0-4-1 homestand that sunk Toronto to 11th place in the Eastern Conference standings, the Maple Leafs would have to go on a 17-11-1 just to get to 91 points, which was the cutoff for making the playoffs last season.
Whatever you do, don't look up.
That appears to be the advice that Matthew Knies is living by these days, following a disastrous 0-4-1 homestand that sunk the Toronto Maple Leafs to 11th place in the Eastern Conference standings.
With 29 games remaining, the Leafs are eight points back of the final wild-card spot with little room for error and even less runway to try and climb up the standings and grab a playoff spot. But don't talk to Knies about the improbability of making the playoffs.
The 23-year-old said he would rather not know.
"I haven't even looked at the standings much, that's how confident I am that we're going to get there," Knies said following a 7-4 loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday.
Call him overly optimistic or maybe even delusional. Whatever you do, don't hand Knies a calculator.
According to moneypuck.com, Toronto now has better odds of winning the No. 1 overall pick (4.5 percent) than they do of making the playoffs (1.4 percent). BetMGM has the Leafs' playoff odds at 4.75 (+375) and odds of missing the playoffs at 1.20 (-500).
In fact, it would take a 17-11-1 finish just for the Leafs to get to the 91-point mark, which was last year's cutoff for making the playoffs. The only problem is that the Boston Bruins, who currently have the final wild-card spot in the East, are on pace for 99 points this season.
In other words, Toronto would need to go on a 21-7-0 run from now until the end of the season to get to 99 points.
That's a 118-point pace for a team that is currently on pace for 88 points. Not even the Tampa Bay Lightning, which leads the East with 70 points in 51 games, is performing at that level.
Maybe that's why the narrative has gone from what the Leafs might offer the New Jersey Devils for Dougie Hamilton to now wondering whether Oliver Ekman-Larsson or Bobby McMann can fetch a first-round pick at the deadline.
After all, it's not like the Leafs have given any indication that they are on the cusp of turning things around. Injuries are one thing, with Toronto currently missing William Nylander, Dakota Joshua and Chris Tanev. But the bigger issue is that the Leafs are still lacking an identity after 53 games.
What are the Leafs, aside from being a team that has underachieved?
They aren't tough to play against. They don't scare you with their speed or their skill, like they did in the past. Their defense remains a mess. Their goaltending is constantly under siege. On most nights, they rely on the power play or the offensive production of one or two star players to get them out of trouble.
As team, they still have yet to commit to playing Craig Berube hockey — whatever that might be.
"Until we decide to do things right and keep the puck out of our net, and that's the goalies included, this is what you're going to get," said coach Berube. "I don't want to talk about it anymore. We can score goals. We score goals. But until we want to keep the puck out of our net, this is what we're going to get. It's no more than that. I don't want to talk about it anymore."
Berube might not want to talk about it anymore because it feels like he's been talking about it all season.
Tuesday's loss was the fifth time in the past eight games where the Leafs gave up six or more goals. According to NHL.com, the Leafs rank last in offensive zone time and are in the bottom-three in defensive zone time and goals-against average.
That's not an indication of a team that will climb out of this funk and grab a playoff spot. Instead, it's a reality check.
It's time to put up the "For Sale" signs. No matter what Knies might think, the season is already over.
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