With the salary cap on the rise, NHL teams are increasingly uncomfortable with the idea of their best players entering the final year of a contract without a new deal in place. There's no more notable situation like that in the league than Nikita Kucherov with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Tampa Bay Lightning's core players are on the wrong side of 30, and they haven't gotten out of the first round in four years. In addition, there is another exhibit to this coming season that needs the full attention of management.
The problem is that their best player, Nikita Kucherov, the reigning and two-time Hart Trophy winner, is not signed beyond 2026-27.
To be fair, it's not necessarily a real problem. They have until July 1, over eight months away, to lock him up. But NHL teams would like to avoid that situation at all costs.
But there are some unique pressure points here, and they have to be discussed as part of the reason why it's imperative to get this agreement locked in as soon as possible. Here's why Tampa might be worried about Kucherov's future.
1. Kucherov is 33 Years Old
Players who are most likely to leave in free agency tend to be on the younger side and don't have tens of millions of dollars in the bank already. While Kucherov is only wrapping up his third contract, any extension he signs should probably be long-term so that Tampa can spread its financial commitment to him over as many years as possible.
It's not that they should be concerned he'll look for a better situation, but rather that he's going to want mega money on a long-term deal, basically all of which will be years when his effectiveness is declining.
2. New CBA Kicks In On Sept. 16
The point of signing him as soon as possible is that you can lock in a relatively small dollar amount for a longer term, right? Kucherov is younger than Brad Marchand and Radko Gudas, who got long-term deals with the Florida Panthers that take them into their 40s, and even a declining superstar player is likely to be quite effective into his 30s, or beyond that if you're lucky. An eight-year deal would allow Tampa to spread a lot of money over as many years as possible.
But the ability to sign eight-year contracts won't be around for much longer. On Sept. 16, that maximum drops to seven years, which, in theory, might be harmful to Tampa's cap picture.
3. Tampa May Not Have Many Competitive Years Left Anyway
Brayden Point is 30, Jake Guentzel 31, Andrei Vasilevskiy 32, Victor Hedman 35, John Carlson 36. If they didn't get out of the first round in any of the last four post-seasons, how certain is it that they'll improve or maintain those results next year, the year after that, the year after that, and so on? Losing Kucherov, or even facing the threat of losing him, would slam shut a window that might already be pretty near to "closed."
With all that said, though, there are reasons not to be worried about this situation.
1. They Can Pay Him Anything He Wants
With how many star players are on the Lightning, you would think they don't have a lot of salary cap space. Quite the opposite.
With literally every big-name player on the roster besides Kucherov signed for at least next season, they are sitting on over $30 million in projected cap space in 2027-28. If he wants max money for some reason? No problem. They'll have almost $9 million more to sign whoever they want to round out the roster.
2. Why Would He Leave?
Kucherov is a lifelong Bolt, and Tampa Bay is definitely a destination, with no state income tax and warm weather. The fact is that, up until July 1, the Lightning can give him one more year than anyone else, regardless of whether he signs today, on Halloween, or on June 30. That's one more year over which to spread the money so the cap works better, or just one more year to have a steady income.
Even if he doesn't want max term, how many teams are going to be more compelling options for him at this point in his career? What's left for him to accomplish?
It's like that old narrative of Steven Stamkos going to market in 2016. There's no reason for him to take his immense talent elsewhere, even if another team could make him a sweeter offer than Tampa. And that's especially true because, at that point, Stamkos and Kucherov hadn't even won their Cups there.
At this point, there's basically no reason to believe this isn't going to end with Kucherov spending the rest of his career in Tampa. Maybe something happens that changes the course for all involved, but it feels incredibly unlikely. Nobody leaves this Tampa team of their own accord unless, like Stamkos, it's obvious they don't have their preferred role there.
Tampa is not going to take away the reigning MVP's preferred role. So any expectation other than re-signing feels premature.
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