One analyst suggested the Toronto Maple Leafs should pursue Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh in free agency. Others aren't so sure. Here's why signing him this summer seems too risky at this point.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to sell ahead of the trade deadline and be aggressive this off-season.
One name that keeps surfacing is Tampa Bay Lightning right-hand defenseman Darren Raddysh. Sportsnet analyst Nick Kypreos pegged Raddysh as the Leafs' ideal target, and on paper, the fit makes plenty of sense.
"What will happen is that you move Morgan (Rielly) out, and you go sign Raddysh from the Tampa Bay Lightning," Kypreos said on Real Kyper And Bourne on Feb. 4. "As far as I'm concerned, it's already done. It's already done. Oh, come on. Toronto boy, he's got a bomb of a shot, which you haven't had in years. It's done."
In reality, though, this could be the kind of swing that backfires.
Raddysh, a 29-year-old Toronto native, is in the middle of a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay. Through 49 games, he's piled up 17 goals and 35 assists for 52 points, adding roughly 20 power-play points and a sparkling plus-17 rating. He's been a major factor on the man advantage, and on a bargain $975,000 cap hit, he's been one of the best value contracts in hockey.
It's a feel-good idea with a big upside if the Leafs land him in free agency at a solid price. The problem is likely to be the price.
Would The Maple Leafs Sign Raddysh At His Highest Point?
Raddysh is set to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1, and after this kind of explosion, he won't be cheap. Average annual value estimates already have him in the $5-million to $6-million range on a long-term deal.
For a Leafs team constantly juggling the salary cap, that's a significant bet on a player coming off a career year.
Some are worried this could turn out to be a massive blunder.
Toronto has a history of falling for the "shiny new thing" — the player who pops in a contract year, gets paid and then struggles to live up to expectations in the pressure cooker of the local market.
Leafs Nation's Zack Phillips said he sees signs of the David Clarkson fiasco: a big payday after a spike in production, followed by very little production once signed.
Fair or not, that fear lingers whenever the Leafs target a late-blooming UFA. Especially because the Clarkson free-agent signing will go down as one of the worst in Maple Leafs history.
The Maple Leafs signed Clarkson to a seven-year, $36.75-million deal after a strong 2011-12 season in New Jersey. He never reached the same level of production, scoring a total of 15 goals in 118 games for the Leafs. He was sent to the Columbus Blue Jackets, played 26 more games over parts of two seasons and left the NHL promptly thereafter.
To be fair, these aren't exactly the same players. Clarkson was a physical power forward at his best, and Raddysh is a two-way defenseman.
How Much Does Timing Matter Here?
Raddysh's breakout didn't come out of nowhere. His junior numbers were strong, and he's produced at nearly every level, only getting better with increased opportunity.
The difference this season has been his chances to play in a more prominent role. Tampa handed him power-play time and replaced Victor Hedman while he was injured, and he's thrived.
That expanded usage is exactly what he could see in Toronto, especially if the Leafs shake up their blueline or move on from a veteran like Morgan Rielly to create cap flexibility.
As analyst Jeff Veillette recently pointed out, the real difference between Tampa and Toronto is timing. The Lightning have made a habit of identifying and developing the next Darren Raddysh before he becomes expensive. The Leafs, on the other hand, are often linked to acquiring players after they've already "popped."
That's the gamble. If Raddysh's production proves sustainable, he could transform Toronto's right side. If this season represents the defenseman just scratching the surface of what he could become, the Leafs may get in right as the perfect storm of usage, timing and confidence collide.
Then again, if this is as good as it gets for Raddysh, the Leafs could be locking into another contract they regret. That seems more likely.
Things are falling just right for the defenseman. Believing this season is a fair representation of what to expect moving forward is a long shot.
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