NHL Playoff Predictions: Who Will Make It to the Stanley Cup Final?

Adam Proteau dives deep into his predictions for each conference final in the 2023 NHL playoffs. Can his pre-season Cup pick go all the way?

It’s time for Stanley Cup predictions again. We fared better in the second round of the NHL's post-season, going 3-1 in our picks to move on to the Eastern and Western Conference finals. This was an improvement on our first-round picks, in which we went 2-2 in the East and 1-3 in the West to improve our overall playoff predictions record this spring to 6-6.

Most importantly, the two teams we liked the most to do some serious damage in the playoffs – the Dallas Stars and our pre-season Cup pick Carolina Hurricanes – are still active and looking very good.

With that said, let’s get to our picks for the Western and Eastern finals.

Why the Golden Knights could win: Vegas wobbled at times during the regular season, but so did every team other than Boston. Only a few of them came together the way Vegas did in the first two rounds. They stumbled against Winnipeg and lost Game 1 of their first-round series but quickly straightened out and disposed of them in four straight games to move on to the second round.

Edmonton gave the Golden Knights a tougher battle in Round 2, splitting the first four games of the series before Vegas won Games 5 and 6 to send the Oilers home for the summer. 

They’re now taking on a Dallas squad that has shown tremendous resolve. But the Golden Knights have received great balance from their forwards – their first line of Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault has generated 15 goals and 33 points in 11 playoff games, while their second line of Brett Howden, Chandler Stephenson and Mark Stone has amassed 13 goals and 27 points. Their defense also has shared the workload fairly evenly, with every member of their top-six D-men averaging at least 18:09 of ice time per game.

In particular, Vegas has received a first-rate performance from first-line center Jack Eichel, who leads the team in goals (6, tied with Stephenson), assists (8), and points (14). This is the Eichel the Golden Knights envisioned when they acquired him from Buffalo in 2021. It’s his first Stanley Cup playoffs ever, and he’s rising to the occasion. 

The Stars will be hard-pressed to put the shackles on him and limit his impact on offense – and if Dallas doesn’t, Vegas will be back in the Cup final for the second time in six seasons of operation. That’s impressive, any way you look at it.

Why the Stars could win: The Stars narrowly avoided elimination at the hands of the upstart Seattle Kraken in Round 2, winning a highly entertaining Game 7 by a 2-1 score Monday night. It was a roller-coaster series and a much tougher one than Dallas’ first-round triumph over Minnesota. The Stars bent but did not break against Seattle, and when it came down to one deciding game, Dallas played a smart, patient, composed game that would’ve been a problem for any opponent.

One of the key reasons why the Stars outlasted the Kraken was the play of star goalie Jake Oettinger, who is now 24-2-3 after a loss since last year's playoffs. In a post-season that has seen more accomplished goalies fall by the wayside, Oettinger stands out as the best of the best who are still playing.

He’s supported by a terrifically potent group of forwards: Dallas’ top line has led the way, with star center Roope Hintz posting a team-best nine goals and 19 points in 13 games, and veteran winger Joe Pavelski being superb (eight goals and 10 points in eight games). 

The Stars’ second line doesn't fall far behind, as veteran Jamie Benn, youngster Wyatt Johnston and greybeard Evgeni Dadonov combined for 10 goals and 25 points. In addition, winger Max Domi has been one of the best trade-deadline pickups, amassing eight assists and 11 points on the Stars’ third line (with veterans Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment). Everyone has shared the load to an admirable degree, and that balance was the reason why the Stars knocked out the Kraken.

Dallas can beat you with either an up-and-down high-scoring game, or with a mistake-minimized defensive game. They can do it all, and Vegas hasn’t yet played a team with Dallas’ resolve. Expect the Stars to give the Golden Knights by far their toughest test yet.

Who is going to win: Dallas

The difference in this series may come down to what it often comes down to at this time of year – namely, who has the better defense. And, while Vegas rolls out a fairly balanced defense corps, the Stars have the best defenseman in the series in Miro Heiskanen, who has averaged an astonishing 28:15 of ice time per game – the most amount of ice time of any playoff performer this year. 

The Stars lean harder on their top three D-men of Heiskanen, veteran Ryan Suter (23:39) and Esa Lindell (21:02), but they also have Oettinger as a huge difference-maker on the back end. Even if you don’t think there’s much to separate Dallas’ forward group from Vegas’, you have to think the Stars are the better team in their own zone.

When it all comes down to it, Vegas has peaked at the right time of year, but Dallas has been more consistently dangerous throughout the year. The Stars are also well-coached by Pete DeBoer, and although we certainly don’t expect Dallas will sweep Vegas, the Golden Knights are likely to find out, in short order, that the Stars are a cut above the rest.

Pick: Stars in six games

Why the Hurricanes could win: Before the season began, we looked at the Hurricanes’ lineup, and went through the process of some checkmarks: Did they have enough speed? Check – yes, they did. 

Was their already-solid defense better with the off-season addition of the rugged Brent Burns? Check – yes, it was. 

Was their goaltending good enough to win in an era where Darcy Kuemper could win a Stanley Cup? Check – yes, it was. 

All of that factored into our choice of Carolina as this year’s Cup champion, and everything that’s played out on the ice this season has underscored why they were our pick to win it all.

Since the regular season started, the Hurricanes’ roster has been largely left untouched. The exception is the savvy addition of veteran D-man Shayne Gostisbehere – and the more impressive factor is they haven’t missed a beat despite the injury void created by the loss of star forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty. 

They’ve been able to thrive in the playoffs because of their defense. As mentioned in Tuesday's NHL Stat Pack, they’re the NHL’s best post-season team left in terms of goals-allowed per game (averaging just 2.55 goals-against in 11 games), and their penalty kill has been next to perfect (with a 90.0 success rate, the NHL’s best in that category). It hasn’t mattered whether Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta has been in net – the play of their defense corps has been a massive difference-maker for them.

In fact, it’s our view that, of the four teams remaining, the Canes have the best top-four defense group. And they’ll need to rely on them to escape Florida’s punishing forecheck and overall physicality. But they’re almost always well-prepared by bench boss Rod Brind’Amour, and they’re older and more balanced than people realize. They’re won’t be overwhelmed by Florida’s attack the way Toronto was against the Panthers in Round 2. 

In sum, Carolina has it all, and they should be the favorite in this matchup.

Why the Panthers could win: We’ve bet against the Panthers in each of the first two playoff rounds and wound up regretting it. They’re the very definition of why getting hot at the right time of year means so much in the post-season. Florida had to play do-or-die hockey just to squeak into the playoffs, and they rode a wave of self-confidence and punishing physical play to knock off two very good teams in the Bruins and Maple Leafs. There’s every chance they can continue to surprise and exceed expectations.

The Panthers have advanced to the Eastern final despite a terrible penalty kill (65.8 percent) and a merely average offense (eighth-best in the playoffs at 3.33 goals-for per game). Credit for that has to go in part to the improved play of veteran goalie Sergei Bobrovsky. The 34-year-old netminder is going to be tested early and often by Carolina’s swift collection of forwards, but if he can hold off the Hurricanes, Florida’s opportunistic offense will provide just enough for them to continue on to the Cup Final for the first time since 1995-96 when they were swept by Colorado. The result could be much different for the Panthers this time around.

Who is going to win: Carolina

You have to give Florida their due – they’ve been the underdog for months now, and yet, they’ve found ways to win far more often than not. But they haven’t faced as cohesive a defense corps as the Hurricanes employ, and we believe that will be the deciding factor in this series. From the beginning of the regular season through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Carolina has been focused and prepared against just about every opponent, and we don’t see that changing now.

This is the Hurricanes’ series to win, and if things go similarly well for them in the next couple weeks, they’ll be the rightful favorite to win in the Cup final.

Pick: Hurricanes in seven games