Predicting the NHL's Pacific Division Rankings in 2023-24

Adam Proteau concludes his NHL division predictions with the Pacific. Could there be some surprising changes in the standings in 2023-24?

The NHL’s 2023-24 regular season is nearly here, and this is the ideal time to compile some fun predictions as to how the season will play out. 

There’s going to be a thin line between the league’s winners and losers, which is why, after speaking to NHL scouts, agents and media members, it’s not easy to give you this writer’s perspective for each of the league’s four divisions.

We began our predictions Sunday with a breakdown of the Metropolitan Division; you can read that file here. On Monday, we analyzed the also-quite-competitive Atlantic Division, and we focused on the Central Division on Tuesday.

Today, we’re finishing things off with a breakdown of the Pacific Division. Let’s get to it:

In: Pierre-Luc Dubois (C), Trevor Lewis (RW), Cam Talbot (G)

Out: Gabe Vilardi (C), Alex Iafallo (LW), Rasmus Kupari (C), Sean Durzi (D), Sean Walker (D), Alex Edler (D), Joonas Korpisalo (G), Cal Petersen (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: After bowing out in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs for the second consecutive season, the Kings made a few significant changes to their roster – most notably, adding star center Dubois to bolster their second line and giving one of their goaltending jobs to veteran Talbot. 

With the talent that remained on board, L.A. has a dynamic mix of young and old competitors. Given the Pacific Division is the weakest of the four divisions this season, the Kings have every opportunity to not only secure a home-ice advantage playoff berth but to win the division.

Kings GM Rob Blake has spent just about every bit of salary cap space entering this season, but don’t kid yourself – if there’s an issue that arises during the year, Blake will address it with a money-in, money-out trade. He’s gambling somewhat on Talbot and fellow netminder Pheonix Copley being above-average performers, but with a defense corps that has a very respectable top four, and with defense-minded forwards Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, they don’t need their goalies to steal them games on a regular basis.

The Kings are a different-looking team than they were at the end of 2022-23, but that’s a good thing. With a few more regular-season wins, they can establish themselves as a true force to reckon with in the Pacific and set themselves up for the post-season success that has eluded them for some time now.

In: Mason Geertsen (D)

Out: Reilly Smith (LW), Phil Kessel (RW), Laurent Brossoit (G), Jonathan Quick (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: The defending Cup-champion Golden Knights didn’t add any regular NHLer this summer, but when you’re as good in all facets of the game as they showed themselves to be last spring, why mess with their chemistry? 

Yes, they had to part ways with Smith, Kessel (often a healthy scratch in the playoffs), and backup goalies Brossoit and Quick, but they have internal replacement options for all those players. It is better from GM Kelly McCrimmon’s perspective to start the season with their own young players and then make changes as necessary once holes in the roster begin to appear.

Although they finished first in the Pacific last year, Vegas did not have a perfect regular season by any stretch. They managed to come together and peak at the perfect time of the season, and coach Bruce Cassidy gave them structure and a raised bar of competitive play. Even if they don’t win the Pacific again in 2023-24, the Golden Knights have more than enough talent on board to enjoy another deep playoff run and attempt to win their second straight Cup.

Good health will be a key, but if they do have that, they have what it takes to be a leviathan once again. The Golden Knights don’t always play pretty hockey, but they do play effective hockey, and that’s all that matters.

In: Connor Brown (RW), Lane Pederson (C)

Out: Kailer Yamamoto (RW), Klim Kostin (LW), Nick Bjugstad (C), Devin Shore (C), Ryan Murray (D)

Why they’re picked in this position: Despite employing two top-five players in the world in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers took a step backward last season, as Vegas eliminated them in the second round of the playoffs. 

However, GM Ken Holland made only a couple of tweaks to Edmonton’s roster, signing solid two-way forward Brown and adding depth forward Pederson to the team. The Oilers still have a wealth of talent, but their goaltending still has some question marks, and their defense corps is not among the league’s elite.

There’s no excuse why Edmonton can’t be a serious Cup threat in 2023-24, but the pressure will be on McDavid & Co. all season long to build up a record that gives them home-ice advantage next spring. Is it possible they achieve that goal? Sure it is. Is it also possible they fall short, have to take on the Kings or Golden Knights in Round 1 and risk taking another step backward for the second straight season? Sure it is.

One way or another, the Oilers will be must-see TV this season. Either they finally carve out the deepest possible post-season run, or Holland will be at a crossroads with certain team members next summer.

In: Yegor Sharangovich (LW), Matt Coronato (RW), Jordan Oesterle (D), coach Ryan Huska, GM Craig Conroy

Out: Tyler Toffoli (RW), Trevor Lewis (RW), Milan Lucic (LW), Nick Ritchie (LW), Troy Stecher (D), coach Darryl Sutter, GM Brad Treliving

Why they’re picked in this position: There weren’t many teams who were more of a disappointment last season than Calgary, and it cost Flames coach Sutter and GM Treliving their jobs. Incoming GM Craig Conroy had to go to work as soon as he got promoted, sending Toffoli to New Jersey for the younger, less-skilled Sharangovich and hiring Huska as Sutter’s replacement behind the bench.

While most of its roster remains in place – for now, at least – Calgary is working on a ticking clock this season. If they get back into the post-season, Conroy can take his time making over the lineup as players get closer to unrestricted free agency. If they don’t make it back to the playoffs, all bets are off, and at long last, we could see the Flames embark on a full roster rebuild.

From our perspective, there’s enough talent on the roster to keep the Flames challenging for a playoff berth. After last season’s letdown, they won’t be favored to win any playoff matchup, but if one of goalies Jacob Markstrom or Dan Vladar steps up and claims the starter’s job, they should be in a fight for a wild-card berth through the end of the regular season.

In: Kailer Yamamoto (RW), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (LW), Devin Shore (C), Brian Dumoulin (D)

Out: Daniel Sprong (RW), Morgan Geekie (C), Ryan Donato (C), Carson Soucy (D), Martin Jones (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Kraken shocked the hockey world last season by making the playoffs for the first time and knocking off the defending Cup champion Avalanche before nearly doing the same to the Dallas Stars. 

They’re ahead of schedule in terms of their competitive cycle, but as we know, progress is not linear, and it’s entirely possible Seattle will take a sideways step in 2023-24.

To be certain, we believe the Kraken could still make the playoffs – albeit in a wild-card spot once again – but with Calgary and Vancouver breathing down its neck, Seattle also could just narrowly miss the post-season next spring. The changes Kraken GM Ron Francis made to the roster affect the fringes of the team. Although young talents, including Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers and Shane Wright, could provide Seattle with a bump from inside, we also wouldn’t be surprised to see the Kraken continue making roster alterations during the season.

In some ways, the Kraken were playing with house money in 2022-23, giving their fan base much to cheer about as they overachieved. However, now that they’ve set the bar higher for themselves, they have significant pressure to perform as well as they did last season. And they may not have enough gas in the tank to take them to the playoffs for a second straight year.

In: Pius Suter (C), Teddy Blueger (LW), Ian Cole (D), Carson Soucy (D), Matt Irwin (D)

Out: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (D), Ethan Bear (D), Travis Dermott (D), Kyle Burroughs (D), Collin Delia (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: The Canucks once again underwhelmed in the win/loss columns, going 38-37-7 while finishing sixth in the Pacific last season. That was one spot worse than they were in 2021-22 when they finished fifth with a 40-30-12 mark. 

Somehow, Vancouver's front office will run back more-or-less the same type of roster as they had last season. You can see why Canucks fans are always close to full-on rage as they watch another exercise in mediocrity year after year.

The biggest change to the 2023-24 Canucks is their defense, with four veterans moving on and three new faces – Cole, Soucy and Irwin – coming in to provide depth on the back end. If star goalie Thatcher Demko stays healthy all year, Vancouver will avoid the basement of the Pacific, but there simply isn’t enough elite talent to get them into the playoffs. Demko can only do so much, and stars such as Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson are doing their part, but after that, there aren’t enough needle-movers on the roster to leapfrog over Calgary and Seattle. Even if they did qualify for the post-season, the Canucks would be first-round fodder for a truly elite team.

If they do miss out on the post-season for the fourth straight season, the Canucks’ rationalizations for keeping the lineup together will fall flat for Vancouver fans and media. They’re beyond sick of being a mushy middle group, and it’s only a matter of time before some of their key veterans ask out and force a full-on rebuild on them.

In: Alex Killorn (RW), Leo Carlsson (C), Andrew Agozzino (LW), Robert Hagg (D), Radko Gudas (D), Ilya Lyubushkin (D), Alex Stalock (G), coach Greg Cronin

Out: Derek Grant (C), Jayson Megna (C), Max Comtois (LW), Kevin Shattenkirk (D), Simon Benoit (D), Nathan Beaulieu (D), Anthony Stolarz (G), coach Dallas Eakins

Why they’re picked in this position: The Ducks are a team in transition, and they’ve changed coaches this off-season in the name of demanding more from their youngsters. 

Core components including rookie Carlsson, star winger Troy Terry, first-line center Trevor Zegras and sophomore center Mason MacTavish all will have major impacts on the roster, but even with new veterans (including Killorn, Gudas and Lyubushkin) on board, this is not likely to be a playoff team.

That probably frustrates Ducks fans, but the truth is they could use another high draft pick more than a first-round playoff exit, which is probably what they’d be dealing with if all their stars lined up in their favor. 

Veteran goalie John Gibson may choose to ask for a trade as soon as possible, and there could be a market for him if Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek retains some of Gibson’s salary over the three seasons left on his contract after this year. In addition, the Ducks have two veteran forwards – wingers Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg – who are in the final season of their contracts and who could be very attractive assets for playoff-bound teams. Thus, you can see where Anaheim will be much different to start next season, and that process of change will be beneficial for a team that needs a clean slate.

There will come a day, and relatively soon, when the Ducks’ youngsters hit their prime and push Anaheim into a playoff position. It probably won’t be this season, though. More patience is needed, and if they play their cards properly, expectations will rise for them in 2024-25 and beyond.

In: Mikael Granlund (C), Anthony Duclair (LW), Mike Hoffman (LW), Givani Smith (LW), Ryan Carpenter (RW), Jan Rutta (D), Mackenzie Blackwood (G)

Out: Steven Lorentz (C), Noah Gregor (C), Erik Karlsson (D), James Reimer (G)

Why they’re picked in this position: Under GM Mike Grier, the Sharks have embarked on a full-rebuild, landing blossoming American center Will Smith with the fourth overall draft pick this past summer. Smith will be playing at Boston College in 2023-24, but he should be a high-impact asset for them a year or two from now. 

While Grier waits for Smith, he likely will continue to ship out veterans entering the final season of their contracts, including forwards Hoffman, Duclair, Kevin Labanc, Oskar Lindblom and Alexandar Barabanov. The Sharks should be able to convert those assets into prospects and draft picks, and that’s all that can be asked of Grier for now.

That said, bigger questions for San Jose include the future of star center and captain Logan Couture, as well as Granlund, who was a pure salary dump in the deal that sent Karlsson to Pittsburgh. It will be much easier to move Couture than Granlund, but Couture’s modified no-trade clause limits the number of teams he’ll accept being moved to only three teams. A small trade market doesn’t mean he can’t be moved, though. And if Couture can be sold on being shipped to a Cup contender, Grier should still be able to reap some solid young players or picks in any deal for him.

It’s going to be another long year for the Sharks, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be a productive one. San Jose management will be happy if some younger players come into their own, and the team as a whole can be more competitive, even if they still lose far more often than they win. The Sharks used to be near-locks to always be in the post-season, but those days are gone for now. The present and the future will be brighter than past years, but there will still be many a pothole in the road ahead of them.