The Morning Take: Why the Capitals and Islanders — not the Flyers or Red Wings — Will Make the Playoffs

The Philadelphia Flyers have the third-best record in the Metropolitan Division. So why is it that the Washington Capitals and New York Islanders both have better odds at making the playoffs?

According to Stathletes, the Islanders have a 59% chance of qualifying for the post-season — the second-best odds of a team that is on the bubble — followed by the Capitals at 51.7% and the Flyers at 49.1%.

After the Flyers, the field drops off.

The Red Wings, who currently hold the final wild card spot in the East, only have a 25.6% of holding that position, followed by New Jersey (10.1%) and Buffalo (4.8%).

That's interesting for a couple of reasons. 

The first being that for all the good that the Sabres have done recently — they have won nine of their past 16 games — the hill to climb to get into the playoffs appears just too great.

The other thing to notice is that the Flyers currently have 76 points, followed by the Capitals and Islanders, who are tied with 73 points. And yet, Philadelphia somehow has worst playoff odds than those other two teams.

Granted, Philadelphia has played more games. Still, the Flyers have a better winning percentage (.559) than the Capitals (.553) and Flyers (.545). What they apparently don't have is the benefit of the doubt. 

Part of that is because Philadelphia has been punching above its weight class for the better part of this season, and now appears to be coming down to earth, having lost nine of its past 14 games.

Of course, the Islanders haven't exactly been setting the world on fire.

Sunday's 5-2 loss to the Rangers was the Islanders fourth straight. But before that, New York had won six in a row. The Capitals, meanwhile, have only four regulation losses in the past 14 games.

What does this all mean?

Well, if you're trying to handicap who will make the playoffs, good luck to you. It's probably going to come down to the final week. And there's probably going to be some guesswork involved.

That being said, keep an eye on the Red Wings, who currently have a 25.6% chance of making the playoffs, despite currently holding down the second wild card spot in the East.

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