Connor McDavid's Dominance, Jake Oettinger vs. Ilya Sorokin for the Vezina and Other Fantasy Hockey Takeaways from THN Poll

The Hockey News recently conducted a pre-season poll of their 34 writers. The answers were varied and interesting, and their collective expertise sheds light on the fantasy value of a few players going into the 2023-24 season.

The Hockey News’ roster of 34 writers from the team sites recently participated in a pre-season poll. The answers were varied and interesting, and their collective expertise should set some light on the fantasy value of certain players going into the 2023-24 season, including picks for MVP, sleepers and busts.

Check out the results below:

Hart Trophy – Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid garnered 26 votes to be the league’s MVP. Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon were tied for second with two votes each. The three players are also the top-three ranked players in my fantasy rankings.

Art Ross Trophy – Connor McDavid

McDavid once again was at the top of the list with a near-unanimous decision receiving all but one vote. The only other player to receive a vote was Draisaitl. While the first overall pick in fantasy featured some debate in the past, there’s no debate at all who should be the first player off the board in any format.

Rocket Richard Trophy – Connor McDavid

This one was a bit more contentious, though McDavid still led the way with 13 votes. Auston Matthews, counting on a bounce-back season with “just” 40 goals last season, was second with 11 votes. THN staff were very bullish on Matthews, who finished with the lowest goal total among players who received votes. Matthews finished 22nd in scoring last season but he's ranked seventh in the fantasy rankings. 

Others who received votes include Mikko Rantanen (4 votes), Draisaitl (2 votes) and Alex Ovechkin, Jason Robertson, David Pastrnak and MacKinnon all received one vote each. Remember to target these players in leagues where goals are weighted more heavily than assists.

Norris Trophy – Cale Makar

The winner of the Norris Trophy has traditionally also been a top scorer, which means that any defenseman who garners votes is also expected to score a lot of points.

No surprise, then, that Cale Makar received the most votes with 18. He’s followed by Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin and Miro Heiskanen with four votes each. Last year’s winner, Erik Karlsson, is expected to regress following an outlier 101-point season, and received just one vote.

Quinn Hughes, who finished second among defensemen with 69 points and tied with Heiskanen for the most power-play points with 34, did not receive any votes.

In the fantasy rankings, it's Makar (17th), Dahlin (44th), Karlsson (48th), Hughes (70th) Fox (73rd) and Heiskanen (88th) when factoring in shots and power-play points. 

Vezina Trophy – Jake Oettinger

The votes were a little more spread out in fantasy’s most fraught position. Jake Oettinger edged Ilya Sorokin (my pick), nine votes to eight, and Juuse Saros and Igor Shesterkin received seven votes each. Connor Hellebuyck rounded out the top five with two votes.

A curious singular vote went to Sergei Bobrovsky, and as far as I know, no THN staff have any family relations with the Russian netminder. The common theme among goalies who received Vezina votes is that they’re all workhorses and expected to play around 60 games this season. If you can't get a workhorse on your fantasy team, the zero-G option's the way to go. 

First Coach to be Fired – Craig Berube

Mike Babcock received three votes and he parted ways with the Jackets just days before training camp. Usually, there’s a bump in performance after a coach is fired. A former pro once told me that the bump in performance is simply players trying to impress the new coach, and not necessarily an improvement in execution or X’s and O’s. (See Boudreau, Bruce).

Regardless, the stagnant Blues might get a bump if Craig Berube is fired, who received nine votes to top the list. D.J. Smith was second with six votes and, surprisingly, Mike Sullivan received four votes. Sullivan has never been a Jack Adams finalist, but his track record has been very good – back-to-back Cups and a .627 P% – not to mention he played a pivotal role in Evgeni Malkin’s contentious contract negotiations, according to a report by The Athletic.

Player Due for a Breakout – Cole Caufield

Many players received votes, but Cole Caufield led the group with four votes. He’s a 40-goal threat when healthy, but it remains to be seen if he has enough help to get him there. His fantasy value is muted despite his obvious talent because the Habs are probably headed to the lottery again, and Caufield ranks 15th among eligible right wingers in version 1.0 of the fantasy rankings. 

Alexis Lafrenière and Quinton Byfield rounded out the top three with three votes each. Byfield has lined up on the top line with the Kings, but his offensive production has been very muted though he's my breakout pick for the Kings. 

Lafrenière has been stuck behind veterans on the depth chart, and his future with the Rangers is still up in the air. There is some sneaky value in banger leagues for Lafrenière, who has 20-goal, 100-hit potential. Three players received two votes and eight other players received one vote.

Related: 8 Breakout Candidates

Player Due for a Setback – Erik Karlsson

Foreshadowed by the fact that Karlsson received only one vote for the Norris, he led this category with eight votes. Reigning Vezina winner Linus Ullmark came second with three votes, and three other players received two votes.

That two players who won major awards last season are expected to falter, which illustrates how difficult it is to stay at the top. The clear consensus is that both Karlsson and Ullmark had outlier seasons.

Related: 7 Regression Candidates

Team Due for a Breakout – Sabres

The Sabres were the most popular choice, receiving 20 of 34 votes. Their offense is their calling card, with Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin considered elite fantasy assets, and their depth is considerable, including Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch. There are nine (!) Sabres in the top 300 fantasy rankings.

The Senators were second with seven votes in what should be a very competitive Atlantic Division, which brings us to…

Team Due for a Setback – Bruins

The loss of both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci means the Bruins received the most votes with 17. Three other teams received at least two votes, and 10 other teams received one vote. 

The NHL is always full of surprises, but even in my Atlantic Division fantasy hockey preview, I had the Bruins finishing behind the Sens and Sabres. The Bruins are bereft of any elite fantasy options, and as noted in the “Player Due for a Setback” category, Ullmark is expected to regress.

Player to Benefit From a Change in Scenery – Ryan Johansen, Alex Newhook

Read this as the player who will improve with his new team. The top two vote getters were Ryan Johansen and Alex Newhook, who received four votes each. Alex DeBrincat was third, while Jonathan Drouin, John Klingberg and Connor Brown rounded out the top five. Newhook was my breakout pick in my Habs fantasy preview.

Yours truly misunderstood the assignment and picked John Gibson as the player who would benefit most from a change of scenery. That still holds true as Gibson’s fantasy value is sure to increase once he is free from the clutches of the lottery-bound Ducks.

Related: 5 Goalies and 2 Defensemen Whose Fantasy Values Increased This Summer

Related: 7 Forwards Whose Fantasy Values Increased This Summer

Player Most Likely to be Traded – Connor Hellebuyck

A pair of Jets top the leaderboard with Connor Hellebuyck (12 votes) and Mark Scheifele (5). William Nylander was tied with Scheifele and Elias Lindholm finished fourth with three votes. All four players are on expiring contracts.

Their fantasy values will change should any of them switch teams. The least likely to move is Nylander since the Leafs are in win-now mode, while the Jets and Flames are wait-and-see.

Player to Show Signs of Aging – Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane led the way with four votes, and he’s not expected to return until later in the year while recovering from an injury. Kane’s already showed signs of declining and his fantasy value will be inflated by his reputation, so be careful not to overrate him. I would argue his fantasy value started to fade once he left the Blackhawks since he won't be a first-line right winger on any competitive team.

Sidney Crosby and Jamie Benn finished tied for second, and I’ll let you guess which one doesn’t belong on this list.

Backup Ready for a Starring Role – Pyotr Kochetkov, Jeremy Swayman

Read this as a zero-G option or insurance pick should you be unfortunate enough to draft a starting goalie with a precarious hold on his job. Pyotr Kochetkov and Jeremy Swayman finished first with six votes each; Swayman should get a significant edge in fantasy value due to the Bruins’ tandem compared to the Canes’ three-goalie rotation. The only way Kochetkov can be the No. 1 is if Frederik Andersen and/or Antti Raanta get injured or play horribly.

Interesting that Jackets prospect Daniil Tarasov finished third with three votes. Elvis Merzlikins, so far, has a good hold on the starting job and the revamped Jackets defense should make his job easier. Surprisingly, there were no votes for Dustin Wolf, Jack Campbell, Akira Schmid or Joel Hofer. 

Other than Connor Bedard, which rookie are you most excited to see? Adam Fantilli

Adam Fantilli was the runaway winner with 23 votes, and Logan Cooley finished third with seven votes. Bedard’s spot as the Blackhawks’ No. 1 center is all but guaranteed, and it’s a little less certain for Fantilli, who needs to supplant Boone Jenner, and Logan Cooley, with Barrett Hayton ahead of him.

All three players carry immense keeper league value, but in redraft leagues, Bedard should be drafted first, followed by Fantilli and Cooley.