Draft scouts pegged Carlsson's skating as a weakness, but the Ducks saw a future star. Now, his improved stride fuels his game-changing impact.
For several years leading up to it, the top of the 2023 NHL Draft was said to be franchise-altering for those teams that had performed poorly enough in the season before to earn themselves a top 3-5 pick. Connor Bedard was the prize and was the obvious favorite to go first overall, but behind him were a trio of ultra-talented forwards with enough skill to challenge for first overall in any other year: Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov, and Leo Carlsson.
The Anaheim Ducks and general manager Pat Verbeek seemed to understand the assignment for the 2022-23 season, finishing as the NHL’s worst defensive team since the introduction of the salary cap (2005-06) and at the very bottom of the NHL standings (58 points), leading to them entering the NHL Draft Lottery with the best odds at selecting first overall and guaranteeing them a top-three pick.
The Chicago Blackhawks won the first lottery and secured the right to select first overall in the draft, while the Ducks won the second lottery and earned the right to pick second overall. The majority of experts predicted Fantilli, who had a historic freshman NCAA season, would be selected right behind Bedard, who had a historic draft year in the WHL. The Ducks wound up taking Carlsson, who had a historic draft year in the SHL.
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To the Ducks, Carlsson represented (and still represents) the highest draft pick the franchise ever had (tied with Bobby Ryan, 2nd in ’05), the best prospect the franchise has ever had, the sole reason NHL franchises bottom out when rebuilding, and the projected cornerstone player they expect will be their best player when they’re hopefully competing for Stanley Cups.
When selected, Carlsson was reported to represent the archetype of “big, poised, cerebral 200-foot center.” Scouting reports indicated he lacked the foot speed to beat defenders wide and projected him to be, at best, an average skater, instead relying on his tactical approach to the offensive side of the puck to drive his production. He was drawing comparisons (glowing comparisons) to players like Joe Thornton, Anze Kopitar, Aleksander Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, Matt Boldy, and Pierre-Luc Dubois.
"Well, I think those scouting reports were wrong," Ducks assistant general manager and director of amateur scouting Martin Madden told THN.com/anaheim in May when asked about Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier's skating. "Leo, he’s a late bloomer physically, so he's had to adapt a little bit like Beckett (Sennecke). He's had to adapt to his growing frame over the last four years. In his draft year, even before his draft year, maybe the last half year before his draft season, his skating really improved as he got stronger and the stride is natural.
"He's got a really good glide. There was more of a question of explosiveness and strength. So, when that is the case, I think it's easier to improve your skating when you just need to get in the gym and work hard and add muscle to your legs. The technical aspect is a little bit more difficult to improve because of muscle memory. You just need lots and lots of repetition, and it can be done, it’s just more difficult.”
Carlsson is 139 games into his NHL career, and it’s taken (or is taking) him a while to adjust to the brand of hockey the NHL requires, as a league, on a nightly basis. He’s tallied 83 points (35-48=83) in those games, but ramped up his production down the stretch of the 2024-25 season with 29 points (10-19=29) in his final 31 games and has hit the ground running in 2025-26 with nine points (3-6=9)in his eight seven.
Those 139 career games may be proving those initial draft-year scouting reports misguided, as the single defining characteristic of Carlsson’s game to this point is his open ice speed, and the plays he makes at that elevated pace.
Carlsson may not be a technically perfect skater, with an upright stance, a somewhat short stride, and a remaining need to refine his edge work. Still, with added explosiveness since entering the league, he’s transformed a perceived weakness into possibly his biggest strength. On a nightly (and sometimes shift-by-shift) basis, he finds ways to receive outlets or pick up pucks while already at full speed, and in doing so, he singlehandedly puts defenders on their heels and drives them deep into their own zone.
Whether it’s simply the power he generates in his strides, the high-end accompanying puck skill, an elite glide (like Madden suggested), or a combination of the lot, what Carlsson can accomplish at the pace he does has been the most prominent factor of his game early in his promising career.
He regularly beats defenders wide who don’t properly respect his speed, and against those that do, he drives them on their heels, creating space for teammates to find lanes or for him to cut back into. If anything, and juxtaposed to his draft year scouting reports, he could stand to find ways to change his pace more frequently and attack a defensive structure more strategically.
The next phases of Carlsson’s development will involve improving some of his coverage habits, increasing his faceoff win percentage, consistently winning board battles, and continuing to explore change-of-pace options. Increasing foot speed and pace should be nowhere near the top of his priority list, as several scouting reports suggested at the time of his draft two and a half years ago.