The 2026 Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics continue to roll on, and today brings a close to the preliminary round of the Men's Olympic Hockey Tournament.
Through the first days of the tournament, it's been a smashing success, with thrilling games and superstar talent shining through.
Overall for the representatives from Boston, it's been a mixed bag of results. Sweden scratched Elias Lindholm following its loss to Finland, after Lindholm went pointless in their first two games.
Hampus Lindholm dressed for Sweden's final preliminary game, but did not break into Sweden's defensive rotation, serving as the extra seventh defenseman.
Joonas Korpisalo has not started for Finland, but has served as a backup, as expected. Henri Jokiharju's had a steady tournament, helping Finland to a win over Sweden and a second-place finish in their group.
David Pastrnak posted one goal and two assists in a disappointing start for Czechia at the Olympics. The Czechs began with a blowout loss to Canada, then came back to beat France. Then came this morning, where the Czechs tied it late against Switzerland, but ultimately fell in overtime.
The result condemned Czechia to a third-place finish in Group A, and lined up a tough single elimination round against one of Germany, Denmark, or Latvia. If the Czechs win that, they'll likely face Canada in the tournament quarterfinals, but more on that later.
That's the wrap on Boston's representatives that have concluded their preliminary round. However, there's still three more games today.
First comes Canada vs France, a game with no Bruin involvement.
Later, Dans Locmelis and Latvia take on Denmark, a game that can swing Latvia's potential group finish from second to fourth, and an overall seed ranging from fifth to 10th.
Locmelis has been one of Latvia's best players, posting two goals and three points through Latvia's first two games. Latvia first lost to the United States before upsetting Germany, the country's first Olympic win since 2014.
Then, the final game of the day comes at 3:10, when Charlie McAvoy and the United States take on Leon Draisaitl and Germany.
Jeremy Swayman got the start yesterday against Denmark, and, unfortunately, it wasn't a banner day for Swayman. After he allowed a goal from center ice, Swayman recovered, stopping 16 of the final 17 shots he saw.
However, the goals did damage, making the US sweat and could ultimately cost them in the Quarterfinal round, as they're widely expected to face Sweden there.
McAvoy, meanwhile, has been everything the US needed. Calm, steady, cool play, letting Quinn Hughes do his thing, and helping facilitate plays.
The US already clinched Group C, but will be playing for seeding.
Potential Elimination Round Scenarios:
With three games left, not a ton is solidified about the knockout round. Three of the four first-round byes, however, have been clinched. Canada, Slovakia, and Finland will receive automatic byes into the quarterfinal, barring Latvia amassing a 15-goal win to pass Finland.
Specific seeding has not been finalized, but barring a 5+ goal win for Germany against the US today, Canada and the USA will be 1 and 2.
The other confirmed seeds so far are Denmark's #3 seed, Finland's #4 seed, Sweden's #7 seed, and Italy/France finishing 11th and 12th.
If Canada beats France by 9 goals or more, they will send France into the 12th seed, while giving themselves an 11+ goal edge on the USA for the top seed overall.
The final game today will be the United States and Germany. The US is heavily favored to win in a potential blowout. That would send the USA and Canada to a tiebreaker of goal differential, one Canada's expected to win.
Germany's final seeding with a regulation loss would be decided before they play, and it gets messy.
The Absolute Mess of Group C's Potential Final Standings:
Sandwiched between the US and Canada comes Latvia and Denmark, a game that could solidify a lot. There are a few scenarios at play here:
If Latvia beats Denmark in regulation, they clinch the #5 seed and a matchup against #12 France or Italy in the single knockout round. Switzerland would take the #6 seed and face the #11 seed, which is the better of Italy or France, based on goal differential, assuming Canada beats France.
If Latvia wins or loses in overtime or a shootout, they'd be sixth, and Denmark remains 10th.
Then, assuming Germany loses in regulation to the United States, a lot of chaos comes into play:
This is thanks to the same tiebreaker that sent Sweden into third place. A three-way tie between Sweden, Finland, and Slovakia, with each going 1-1 against one another. The tiebreaker then becomes the goal differential totals of those head-to-head matchups.
That removes the scores from the USA games. So far, we've seen:
Germany 3-1 Denmark
Latvia 4-3 Germany
So, thus far, that tiebreaker is: Latvia +1, Germany +1, Denmark -2.
Today, if Denmark beats Latvia in regulation and Germany loses in regulation, the tiebreaker comes into play.
Denmark would need to win by 4 goals or more to overtake Germany for second place. A three-goal win would put them level with Germany, but Germany holds the edge over them in the H2H result department.
But, every goal will matter.
If Denmark wins in regulation by 2 or 3 goals, they'd move ahead of Latvia in the group, sending Latvia down into last place in Group C and the 10th seed, while Denmark would move up to third in Group C and the 9th seed. Germany, meanwhile, finished second and would be seeded 6th.
If Denmark wins in regulation by exactly 1 goal, they would still finish last in the group, seeded 10th. Latvia would finish third, seeded 9th. Germany again finished second in group, seeded 6th.
OK Great, But What Does That Mean For The Overall Bracket?
Well, assuming the favorites (Denmark, Canada and the USA) win, the bracket would end up looking like this, based on the tiebreakers and expected results:
BYES: #1 Canada, #2 USA, #3 Slovakia, #4 Finland
Single Elimination Knockout Round:
#5 Switzerland v #12 France
#6 Germany v #11 Italy
#7 Sweden v #10 Denmark
#8 Czechia v #9 Latvia
OR
#5 Latvia v #12 France
#6 Switzerland v #11 Italy
#7 Sweden v #10 Denmark
#8 Czechia v #9 Germany
But wait, there's more potential chaos:
Then, there is one more chaos scenario. Germany beats the United States in regulation by 2+ goals, AND Latvia upsets Denmark in regulation; you'd think the bracket gets blown up.
Latvia is ahead of Germany and wins. That should keep them in second, but it would actually send them all the way down to the 8th seed, while Germany would leapfrog them for the 5th seed.
But, how's that possible? It would be that three-way tie goal differential we've already performed. Germany would have a better overall goal differential than Latvia, sending the Latvians down to third in Group C.
Heck, if Germany somehow beats the USA by 3 or more goals AND Latvia beats Denmark in regulation, Germany would win Group C!
That would make the bracket as follows:
QF Byes: #1 Canada, #2 Germany, #3 Slovakia, #4 Finland
Single Knockouts:
#5 USA v #12 France
#6 Switzerland v #11 Italy
#7 Sweden v #10 Denmark
#8 Latvia v #9 Czechia