A Second Period Disaster, Top Line Produces Offense but Struggles in Own End, Reimer Struggles Again: Red Wings-Wild Statistical Review
Diving into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 6-3 loss in Minnesota
On Wednesday night at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, the Detroit Red Wings suffered a 6-3 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Wild. For a clearer sense of how the game unfolded, let's dive into the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals as calculated by MoneyPuck, the Wild were comfortably ahead of Detroit, earning a 3.76-2.75 advantage.
The Red Wings got out to a poor start to this game. By the time James Reimer denied a Marco Rossi breakaway bid at the 3:44 mark of the first, Detroit already trailed 1-0 on the scoreboard and 0.166-0.857 by xG. However, Patrick Kane tied the game just past the five minute mark, and the Red Wings improved as the period progressed. Still, Detroit trailed 0.909-1.476 by the end of the first.
The second was nothing short of a disaster by the run of play, though, thanks in large part to Reimer, the Wild scored just once. Minnesota earned a 1.273-0.441 edge in xG, with a surplus of Red Wing turnovers inviting wave after wave of rush pressure.
The third was, despite how the outcome, Detroit's best period. The Red Wings even earned a 1.398-1.015 xG advantage. However, the Wild still outscored Detroit 4-2, with Reimer's well of big saves seeming to run dry.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, this wasn't a terrible performance for the Red Wings at five-on-five. Over the course of the game, Detroit earned a 54.74% CorsiFor, a 56% share of scoring chances, a 47.62% share of high-danger chances, and a 45.99% share of expected goals.
However, to apply a bit tighter of a lens, the calamitous second period becomes even clearer. In the first, the Red Wings earned a 52.62% share of xG; in the third, they were even better at 60.37%; in the second, they fell all the way to 25.57%.
-The above heat map from NST of five-on-five unblocked shots underscores the Wild's ability to drive high quality offense. As you can see, a huge portion of Minnesota's five-on-five offense (including all six of their goals) came from the slot.
Individual Impacts
-The Red Wings' top line played the biggest part in driving offense for Detroit. Alex DeBrincat finished first in individual xG with 0.77, and Dylan Larkin ranked third at 0.29. Their line with Kane led Detroit in on-ice xG at 0.843, but they gave back more than they produced (1.003 xG against). Despite that disparity (a 45.7% share of on-ice xG), DeBrincat's first period assist for Kane did provide the lone goal in either direction with the Red Wings' top trio on the ice.
-Though this wasn't a terribly lopsided game in sum total at five-on-five, only three Red Wings finished with a five-on-five on-ice xG share north of 50%: Jake Walman (51.11%), Moritz Seider (55.99%), and Michael Rasmussen (57.93%).
-The Red Wings' best (or perhaps most complete) line was the David Perron-Andrew Copp-Rasmussen trio, who played just 8:49 at five-on-five together and racked up a 71.8% share of on-ice xG. Meanwhile, this was a very difficult evening for Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher, and Robby Fabbri, who managed just a 36.5% share of on-ice xG in 10:27 together at five-on-five and were outscored 4-0.
-On the back end, Walman and Seider shouldered a heavy workload together, putting up strong underlying numbers but suffering poor results. The pair played 18:56 together at five-a-side, earning a 54.9% share of on-ice xG, but suffering a 3-1 deficit in those minutes. Simon Edvinsson, playing in his second NHL game of the season, notched an assist in 15:59. However, he managed just a 32.5% share of on-ice xG in 14:40 at five-on-five.
-James Reimer had a difficult night to parse. He was perhaps the Red Wings' best player through the first 40 minutes of action, keeping Detroit afloat in a game that they deserved to be trailing (and probably by a lot). However, he struggled in the third period, with Minnesota's span of three goals in just over two minutes all but ending the game.
The underlying numbers were not flattering to Reimer. Per MoneyPuck, he faced 3.764 xG, so giving up six amounts to a -2.24 Goals Saved Above Expected.
When asked about his performance last night, Derek Lalonde said, "He did his job over the first 40 minutes. He gave us a chance. We got to 2-2 because of Reims, and then obviously things fell apart in the third." That phrase "over the first 40 minutes" feels the most poignant part of that response.
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