Gauging DeBrincat's Fit, Prospect Progress vs. NHL Depth, What Kane Tells us About the Trade Deadline, Husso as Number One: Re-Evaluating Preseason Red Wings Existential Questions

As the Detroit Red Wings season hits its quarter mark, let's take a look back at four foundational questions we had entering the season

Author:
Sam Stockton
Publish date:
Nov 29, 2023 11:39 AM EST

The Detroit Red Wings have now played 20 games, accruing a record of 11-6-3. A day before the season began, I posed four existential questions facing the team heading into the 2023-24.

With roughly a quarter of the season played, why not take a moment to re-visit those questions—from Alex DeBrincat's introduction to what Patrick Kane's signing tells us about trade deadline plans?

Oct 24, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Red Wings right wing Alex DeBrincat (93) celebrates with his teamates after scoring a power play goal against the Seattle Kraken in the third period at Little Caesars Arena.
Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

What Exactly Did the Red Wings Acquire in Alex DeBrincat?

This is, by a great distance, the easiest of these four questions to answer, because there is no ambiguity about Alex DeBrincat's value or fit through 20 games.

The Red Wings believed that they could keep games under control against any team in the league a year ago, but that they lacked a player who could swing those games in their favor.

DeBrincat's status as an elite scorer was in question after a 27-goal season for the Ottawa Senators a year ago, and certain pundits wondered whether he could provide anything other than goals to a team with postseason aspirations.

Through 20 games, DeBrincat is a point-a-game player for the Red Wings with eight goals and a dozen assists. Better still, his game seems to mesh perfectly with Derek Lalonde's vision for Detroit—as a forechecking team that it is at once aggressive and disciplined. Best of all, he's provided the scoring boost the team desired at even strength and by adding extra fire power to the Detroit man advantage.

His most recent goal—last Friday against the Bruins—illustrates this perfectly.

The Bruins were then the NHL's leaders, and they appeared on their way to a clean exit from their defensive zone. DeBrincat had a different idea, applying back pressure to an unsuspecting Matthew Poitras. Poitras eluded DeBrincat's initial attempts, but couldn't prevent the Red Wings' offseason prize from pilfering the puck.

From there, DeBrincat wired a shot past Jeremy Swayman to give Detroit a decisive 2-0 lead in what would become a 5-2 victory.

Simply put, it would be hard for DeBrincat to better reward the Red Wings' offseason investment than he has.

How Does a Potential Playoff Push Shape the Future for Detroit's Top Prospects?

This summer, Detroit bet on its ability to bolster its depth through free agency as a means of climbing the playoff queue in a crowded Atlantic Division.

The arrival of "added depth"—a phrase Lalonde and the Red Wings used daily throughout the preseason—to all three position groups made it much less realistic for the team's top prospects to crack the NHL line-up. With seven veteran defensemen and an influx of veteran depth forwards in the form of Daniel Sprong, Klim Kostin, and Christian Fischer, there wasn't much room for the likes of Simon Edvinsson, Jonatan Berggren, Elmer Soderblom, or Marco Kasper.

Whatever that might mean for those prospects' long-term growth, that bet has paid off for the team's short-term playoff interests. The Red Wings sit at third in the Atlantic and would be the five-seed in the East if the playoffs began today.

The benefit of Detroit's depth is even in clearer in its progress relative to its rebuilding peers in the division, Buffalo and Ottawa.

Both the Sabres and Senators (sixth and eighth in the Atlantic) are far more reliant on young players than the Red Wings (who until Jonatan Berggren's call-up this week didn't have a first- or second-year player on the roster). Detroit is the NHL's 18th oldest team with an average age of 27.44; Buffalo is 23rd oldest at 26.88, and Ottawa is 30th at just 26.12.

Age might not explain the entire difference between the three teams, but adding veteran players to improve depth through free agency rather than relying purely on youth has undeniably played a role in the Red Wings' immediate progress over those two rivals.

With that said, questions linger about whether a lack of NHL opportunity will hurt the long-term progress of the organization and development of its top prospects.

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What Will the Red Wings Do at the Trade Deadline?

This is the trickiest question to answer here, because of course the deadline remains months away. However, back before the season began, Steve Yzerman said that the signal a rebuild is over is when the team in questions decides to start trading future assets for immediate help.

We don't yet know Detroit's appetite for doing that come March 8th and the deadline, but, the above discussion of a trade-off between veteran depth and NHL opportunity for youth signals a move in that direction. Of course, that trade doesn't involve giving up those prospects, just holding them in the AHL.

This week's signing of Patrick Kane offers a different insight into the decision-making process of Red Wing brass, because Kane is being signed as a short-term luxury item. As a thirty-five-year-old coming off major hip surgery who just signed a one-year contract, Kane can't be a part of anybody's long-term plans, and it's not as though Detroit needs an extra playmaker in its arsenal to contend for the postseason.

Still, Kane could provide a further offensive boost to the Red Wings' middle six if he does rediscover his groove when he returns to game action following his surgery, and his one-year deal carries with it little risk. It's a move that might push Detroit's efforts over the top, rather than a foundation on which more can be built.

Of course, Kane too came at no acquisition cost, so it remains to be seen if the Red Wings might cross that threshold in March with their remaining cap space.

Can Ville Husso Thrive as the Tip of the Spear in Net?

The harshly realistic answer to this question is not especially well. That's not to say Ville Husso hasn't convinced in moments, his most recent start against the Bruins providing clear evidence that, when the Fin is on his game, he can be excellent in net for the Red Wings.

However, inconsistency and an unfortunate penchant for soft goals leave Husso with an .888 save percentage and 3.47 goals against average. By MoneyPuck's accounting, he ranks 59th among the 78 goalies to appear in a game this season in Goals Saved Above Expected at -3.0.

The good news is that in the last two weeks Alex Lyon—who entered the year as the team's third goalie—has emerged as a strong candidate to provide Husso with relief if not supplant him. Lyon has played just thrice, but he has a .952 SV% and 1.35 GAA.

Of course it's a small sample, and, in all likelihood, Lyon won't stay quite that sharp as his workload increases, but his strong form is a considerable silver lining in the face of what's been, at best, an up-and-down start to the season for Husso.