A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 6-5 OT loss to the Sharks Thursday evening
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 6-5 OT loss to the Sharks Thursday evening
On Thursday evening at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings fell 6-5 in overtime to the visiting San Jose Sharks. In his post-game presser, coach Derek Lalonde excoriated his team as "lazy and casual away from the puck," saying that Detroit didn't deserve a win based on the run of play. For a clearer sense of what that looked like and for a quantitative review of Patrick Kane's Red Wing debut, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers from the defeat.
The Big Picture
-By all situations xG, the Sharks edged Detroit 3.26-3.01.
San Jose dominated the first period in chance creation (earning a 0.948-0.494 xG advantage), but Ville Husso held them off the board. The second period (and perhaps more specifically the second half of the second period) was pure chaos, with eight goals split evenly in 10:32. The Red Wings' best hockey of the night came either in the middle stages of the second or the early part of the third, but they were unable to sustain momentum based on this limited spells of success. Ultimately, San Jose generated a late push, a six-on-five equalizer, and then the overtime winner.
-As the below five-on-five shot attempt heat map shows, this was a game in which both teams had lots of chances offensively, though the Sharks were decidedly the more effective team at generating quality offense from the inner slot. Despite that, most of San Jose's damage came in game states other than five-on-five, scoring twice short-handed, once at six-on-five, and then in three-on-three OT.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, this was a relatively even five-on-five game. Detroit earned a 54.46% CorsiFor, a 47.19% share of scoring chances, a 47.37% share of high-danger chances, and a 49.18% share of the expected goals.
Those numbers were heavily skewed by the Red Wings' poor first period though. To use xG as an example, Detroit went from a woeful 33.47% share in the first to a 54.79% share in the second, to a borderline dominant 59.53% share in the third. That divide suggests that the Red Wings probably didn't have any business leading this game 4-0 but also that they probably should have found a way to finish it off late.
Individual Impacts
-Our individual impacts section has to begin with Patrick Kane.
Kane finished second on the team in individual xG contributions with 0.41. He played 16:33 (which Derek Lalonde said went beyond the team's approximate minute limitation entering the night because of Kane's comfort) and registered three shots on goal in 22 shifts.
In 14:25 at five-on-five, Kane earned an excellent 65.1% share of in-ice xG. Of course, it's a small sample, and perhaps some of that is being used in favorable situations in his first game back, but it is also an undeniably positive sign that Kane was so influential in his first game action since May 1st.
Per the NHL's EDGE player tracking data, Kane reached a top speed of 19.4 miles-per-hour (below 50th percentile) and skated 2.76 miles. When you average that distance out to miles skated per 60 minutes of ice time, Kane's 10.02 miles puts him in the 85th percentile.
Kane's fastest shot clocked in at 68.17 MPH (also below 50th percentile), but perhaps the most encouraging of all these numbers is that Kane spent 43.8% of his night in the offensive zone. Again, the small sample caveat applies, but that is perhaps the clearest indicator that Kane was up to (some version of) his usual tricks—creating chances and extending his team's possession in the O zone.
Kane's most frequent line-mate at five-on-five was Alex DeBrincat, with the pair skating 12:34 together. Joe Veleno shared 8:51 with Kane at five-on-five, and Dylan Larkin joined him for 3:34. For whatever it's worth, Jeff Petry (7:25) and Ben Chiarot (7:22) were Kane's most frequent defensive teammates.
-Detroit's third line (Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and David Perron) was its most consistently impactful at five-on-five. In 7:25 together, they scored a goal, didn't concede, and a 69.1% share of on-ice xG.
The fourth trio (Klim Kostin, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong) was the only other regular Red Wing to come out above water in xG share. The line scored once, gave up one (Nico Sturm's 4-4 equalizer late in the second), and earned a 52.5% share of on-ice xG.
-On the back end, only Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry spent the entire game playing together, which they did to great success. The duo played 16:39 at five-on-five, outscoring the Sharks 2-0, and earning a 56.6% share of on-ice xG.
Detroit started the game with the familiar pairs of Jake Walman-Moritz Seider and Shayne Gostisbehere-Justin Holl, but after the top pairing in particular struggled early, those were disrupted over the course of the game.
Walman and Seider played 7:21 at five-on-five, and while there were no goals in those minutes, they earned just a 5.7% share of on-ice xG. Gostisbehere and Holl actually earned a 100% share of on-ice xG together, but they played just 3:13. For the remainder of the game, Seider played with Gostisbehere and Walman with Holl, an alignment that served the Red Wings much better.
Seider and Gostisbehere played 9:44, posting a 67.4% on-ice xG share with Detroit outscoring San Jose 1-0 in those minutes. Meanwhile, Walman and Holl were on the ice for a goal against without being out for a goal for, but they earned a 61.9% share of on-ice xG. Given those results, it seems quite possible that Lalonde sticks with Seider-Gostisbehere and Walman-Holl when Detroit returns to action on Saturday night.
-Finally, this was not a flattering night for Ville Husso in goal. He was sharp in the first as the Red Wings suffered and floundered in front of him, but by night's end, Husso conceded six goals on 3.261 xG against (-2.74 Goals Saved Above Expected).
We always offer the qualifier that single game xG stats can be especially squirrely for goaltender evaluations, but I would argue this is a case where xG is useful in deciphering Husso's performance. There wasn't a single egregious goal against that you could point to as problematic, but, in sum total, you would have wanted to Husso to keep at least one or perhaps even two of the goals he conceded out of the net.
Given Husso's two most recent performances, it seems hard to argue against Alex Lyon's assuming the majority of the goaltending duties moving forward.
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