Walman-Seider's Heavy Lift and Containment, Copp Line Keeps Driving, Lyon Outduels Vasilevskiy: Red Wings-Lightning Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from last night's 2-1 Detroit Red Wings win over the Tampa Bay Lightning
Last night at Little Caesars Arena, the Detroit Red Wings earned a 2-1 victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Lightning for two vital points in the Atlantic Division standings.
Thanks to the win, the Red Wings woke up this morning tied on points with the Lightning at 53, but having played one fewer game. If the playoffs began today, Detroit would be the first wild card team in the East.
For a clearer sense of how the Red Wings earned the win, let's take a dive into the underlying numbers from last night.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals, the Red Wings bested Tampa 3.28-2.04, per MoneyPuck. The biggest source of that gap was a dominant second period. Detroit had a slight edge in xG in the first (0.621-0.359), but in the second, that advantage swelled, with the Red Wings putting up 2.191 xG compared to just 0.308 for the visitors.
Andrei Vasilevskiy was outstanding for the Lightning during that run, and Tampa was able to hold the score at just 2-1 despite a massive Detroit advantage in chance creation.
In the third, the Bolts flipped that script by directing 1.375 xG at Alex Lyon's net, but it was Lyon's turn to hold off a storm, and the Red Wings retained their 2-1 edge through the final horn.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit owned the shot metrics for the night at five-on-five. The Red Wings earned a 55.84% CorsiFor, a 60.61% share of scoring chances, a 64.29% share of high-danger chances, and a 57.66% share of expected goals.
As the below heat map shows (as well as the above high-danger chance figure), a major factor in Detroit's success was its ability to restrict Tampa's overall volume of shots but in particular limit the Lightning's ability to create quality, interior chances.
Individual Impacts
-Arguably the two most important Red Wing skaters to the victory were Moritz Seider and Jake Walman.
Seider played 25:08 in all situations, and Walman 22:24. They didn't account for any points, and their underlying numbers were less than stellar, but they were nonetheless integral to the win.
In 16:29 together at five-on-five, the duo was on the ice for 0.464 xG compared to 0.716 xG against. Detroit scored once with them out together and gave up a goal in that circumstance.
However, those numbers do not do justice to the work Seider and Walman did to contain Tampa's top-end talent. The current Lightning lack the depth of the Cup-winning Tampa sides of a recent vintage, but superstars like Nikita Kucherov are every bit as dangerous as they've ever been.
For Detroit, beating the Lightning had to start with limiting the damage done by Tampa's stars. While Kucherov did pick up an assist on Victor Hedman's goal, for the most part Walman and Seider ensured that he had little impact on the evening's result.
Kucherov played 25:52 in all situations. Seider was on the ice for 20:20 of those minutes, and Walman 19:12. By the end of the night, Kucherov had just one five-on-five shot. His line-mates Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point had just one more between them. That is a tremendous credit to Walman and Seider.
-Meanwhile, the Red Wings' third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer continued their recent exemplary form. They didn't score, but they were a force at five-on-five, putting up 0.507 xG compared to just 0.05 against (a 91.0% share of on-ice xG!) in 11:21 together. They were essential to Detroit getting settled into the game in the first period, when the Lightning had the lion's share of the puck.
-Finally, this was another outstanding performance from Alex Lyon. He made 27 saves on 28 shots, giving up just one goal on 2.042 xG for a Goals Saved Above Expected of 1.04 (per MoneyPuck).
It was a night of excellent goaltending, with Vasilevskiy nearly as dominant in the Lightning crease. He made 33 saves while giving up two goals on 3.275 xG for a GSAE of 1.28.
Nonetheless, it's a tremendous credit to Lyon, who has been excellent in 2024, that he was able to outlast the NHL's gold standard for goaltending to get the victory last night.
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