Montreal was terrible on the ice in 2022-23, but things seem to be going according to Kent Hughes and Martin St. Louis' plan. What's next for the Habs, and how does it affect Detroit?
The Montreal Canadiens were an ugly sight to behold in the 2022-23 season, finishing last in the Atlantic and second last in the East with a 31-45-6 record and -75 goal difference.
Despite that, vibes in Montreal aren't too bad. You'd expect a team and fan base that appeared in the Cup final just two years ago would be enraged at missing the playoffs (by a great distance), but Habs fans seem to have mostly moved into the acceptance phase with respect to that aberrant 2021 run.
The reason for the Canadiens' relative contentment is that they appear to have a plan in place toward a brighter and more sustainable future. When GM Kent Hughes hired Martin St. Louis as head coach back in February 2022, it was an obvious risk. St. Louis had zero NHL coaching experience to speak of, but his reputation and developmental philosophy were enough to get him the job.
A year and a half in, it's fair to say that experiment is going well, despite the lowly record. The Canadiens' youngsters have seen an obvious boost in morale and performance since his arrival, most notably Wisconsin-born sniper Cole Caufield.
Among the chief reasons for the Habs' wretched '22-23 record was a surplus of injuries. Caufield, last year's first overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky, and breakout rookie sensation Arber "WiFi" Xhekaj all finished the season on the IR.
Caufield signed an eight-year, $7.85 AAV extension on June 5th that will make him a franchise cornerstone through at least the '30-31 season. If the cap goes up as expected in the coming years and Caufield continues to build on his impressive first few seasons in the NHL, that contract will look like a steal for Montreal in short order.
Xhekaj burst onto the scene this season in unique fashion. The 22-year-old from Hamilton, Ontario stood out not thanks to his skill but instead his physical prowess. It's been some time since a young player announced their presence to the league as a fighter or tough guy, a role that seemed to have outlived its utility. Xhekaj won't light up the scoresheet, but he's already a fan favorite, and players of his style are hard to come by in the modern NHL.
Slafkovsky is a slightly different story. When Montreal selected him first last year, it was something of a shock. As a rookie, the Slovak posted 10 points in 39 games, playing an average of just 12:13 a night. Throw in the injuries, I don't think it would be ridiculous for Montreal to chalk up his rookie season as an anomaly and trust St. Louis to draw more out of Slafkovsky next year. Still, the murmurs of bust will grow louder if Slafkovsky can't put a bit more together in '23-24.
Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson pose a question for the Canadiens. Both are signed through 2027 (Gallagher at an AAV of $6.5 million and Anderson at $5.5 million). Gallagher is 31, and Anderson 29. Given that Hughes has initiated an all-out rebuild, it seems unlikely that either will have much to contribute to the next Cup contender in Montreal. I would think Hughes will look to move on from at least one of those deals this summer, and Anderson is probably the more likely candidate to ship out.
I don't love what Montreal has to offer on the blue line, but Lane Hutson (whom the Habs snagged in the second round last year) looked phenomenal as a freshman at Boston University. He will return for his sophomore year at BU in the fall, but his season may well end with a cameo in Montreal once his campaign with the Terriers concludes some time in late March or early April.
Off-Season Needs
The Canadiens are in a unique position when it comes to talking about off-season voids to fill.
To be sure, this roster has glaring deficiencies Montreal might attempt to remedy, but, given the timeline of their rebuild, it's unlikely Hughes is in any hurry to solve those problems. This team will almost certainly be more concerned with the '24 draft lottery than post-season.
One interesting UFA on the roster though is Jonathan Drouin. During his time in Montreal, Drouin has been brave and vulnerable in discussing his struggles with his mental health. That journey included a leave of absence from the team that begin in April 2021 and extended through the club's unlikely run to that year's Cup Final against Tampa. Whether or how that impacts his thought process with respect to free agency is of course an unknown, but at just 28, it's not hard to imagine that he could have many successful season left should he want to pursue that, whether it's in Montreal or elsewhere.
The Habs' goaltending situation is also worth discussing. Montreal has two goalies on its books for next season: 32-year-old Jake Allen (signed for two more seasons) and 26-year-old Sam Montembeault (signed only through next year). Neither looks like the Canadiens' goaltender of the future, but Jakub Dobes (who signed after the completion of his NCAA season in the spring) out of Ohio State is an intriguing prospect in the crease.
For now, Hughes may not want to fill that void with external help. Given that the Habs are still tanking, improved goaltending may actually be harmful in the short term.
How Does This Affect the Wings?
Throughout the "Around the Atlantic" series, I've sub-divided the division into two categories. In the first are the Atlantic's old guard: Tampa, Toronto, Boston, and Florida. Teams who have run the division for years and established themselves as playoff stalwarts, even if they are in varying degrees of flux this off-season. Then you have the second group, the re-builders: Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, and Montreal.
Even within that group though, Montreal stands out. Unlike those other three teams, the 2024 playoffs really aren't within reach, not even if everything that can go right does. This is a team with a more distant timeline than any of the Sabres, Sens, and Red Wings.
As such, Montreal is the one team in the Atlantic the Wings can confidently say they are ahead of entering next season. It will be worth monitoring just how patient Hughes and St. Louis can remain in the frenzied market that is Montreal. The early phases of the rebuild have been about as smooth as you could hope for, and the pieces for the future are coming into place. Still, this isn't a market that's shown any appetite for prolonged periods of darkness, so it will be interesting to see how long the Canadien fan base is willing to embrace long-term thinking and a shoddy NHL product.