Around the Atlantic: What's Next for the Lightning?

In 2023, the Tampa Bay Lightning's three-year reign over the NHL's Eastern Conference came to an end.  The Bolts fell to Toronto in six games in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and for the first time since the onset of COVID, Tampa failed to win the Prince of Wales Trophy.

In the regular season, Tampa was fifteenth in the NHL by xG% at five-on-five (51.32%).  Granted, the Lightning know better than any team in the league that the games that matter happen in April, May, and June, not October, November, and December.

Throughout the '22-23 season, the Bolts profiled as a team in decline, but their post-season pedigree suggested that they wouldn't bow out quietly.  That's more or less how it played out.  Tampa's playoff nous kept a beleaguered roster in a series against a more talented Maple Leaf team with far less playoff seasoning.

It's possible that Tampa will benefit from its first long off-season in three years, but this core of players has accrued tremendous mileage over their years of dominance.  The Lightning have been the class of the NHL for about a decade—lapping the league in terms of talent evaluation, roster construction, and cap management.  Still, or perhaps because of that run, you have to wonder just how much longer the Lightning will merit inclusion in the NHL's elite class.

Because of how long Tampa has been at or near the NHL's pinnacle, it's difficult to rule out the possibility of their resurgence, but it's hard to argue against the idea that the Lightning are declining, if only because the preceding heights were so high.  Even if you believe this team has a few more good kicks at the can left, it's hard to imagine them going to three straight Cup Finals again anytime soon.

The contract status of Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman—two undeniable pillars of the Lightning's championship run—will be a determining factor in the Lightning's future.  Stamkos, the first overall pick in the 2008 NHL Draft, is now 33 with one year left on his contract at an $8.5 million cap hit.  Hedman, the second overall pick in the 2009 NHL Draft, is 32 with two years left on his deal at an AAV of $7.875 million.

Both of those contracts are a reminder of just how well the Lightning managed their salary cap throughout their dynastic run.  It's also worth noting that while both Hedman and Stamkos are comfortably into the back halves of their careers, neither is washed by any means.  The former just posted an absurd 62.5% xG share at five-on-five against Toronto in the playoffs, and the latter scored 84 and 106 points in his last two seasons.

46 wins and 98 points slotted the Lightning third in the Atlantic, sixth in the East, and thirteenth in the league in '22-23.  Those numbers seem well within reach in '23-24—comfortably in the playoffs but hardly threatening for the division crown. 

This summer, Tampa has some significant decisions to make with respect to its depth forwards. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Corey Perry, and Alex Killorn are UFAs, and Ross Colton and Tanner Jeannot are RFAs.  GM Julien BriseBois has an exceptional track record at re-making the Lightning's bottom six throughout their recent run of success, and he will have to repeat that feat once again.

Furthermore, the Lightning need to improve their depth on the blue line.  In a not too distant Victor Hedman-less world, can Mikhail Sergachev perform well as a the Bolts' number one defenseman?  Meanwhile, Tampa still hasn't really replaced Ryan McDonagh, whom they were forced to deal to Nashville last summer in a salary cap dump and who proved a vital presence on the left side of the Tampa blue line for the team's Cup championships.

To fill those voids (at least in the short term), Tampa will have to rely on free agency more than they can on the draft.  The Lightning have exactly one pick in the first two rounds over the next three drafts (a 2025 second).

The good news for BriseBois is that Tampa doesn't appear at any serious risk of falling out of the playoff picture entirely in the next few years.  Up front, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Anthony Cirelli are all under team control for at least four more seasons, while Sergachev and Erik Cernak's contracts should help provide security on the back end through 2030-31.  Somewhere along that path, BriseBois will have to supplement that core with some younger elite talent, but, at least for now, it seems reasonable that the Lightning could remain in contention in the Eastern Conference without any major acquisitions.

Of course, all of this also rests on the continued good form and durability of netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has manned the Tampa crease throughout the organization's golden years.  The Leafs found some joy on shots from distance with heavy traffic against Vasilevskiy in the first round, but his regular season save percentage (.915 in 60 appearances, all of them starts) suggests that there's no need to worry about him declining, at least for now.  Still, goaltending is a fickle beast, and Vasilevskiy will turn 29 in July.  

Much like with the Leafs and Bruins, it's fairly difficult to imagine the Red Wings leap-frogging Tampa in the 2023-24 season.  Tampa's organizational infrastructure and know-how is the strongest in the league by some distance.  Jon Cooper has an unimpeachable track record at figuring out the ideal deployment of his elite talent, and, at least for now, there is plenty of that talent at his disposal.

With that said, Tampa and Detroit have a long history of organizational overlap with the most prominent recent example coming last summer when Jeff Blashill and Derek Lalonde traded roles (the former going to Tampa as an assistant to Cooper and the latter coming to Detroit as head coach).

If Steve Yzerman wants to continue this trend, Alex Killorn might be a player for Detroit to take a look at.  He could fill a void for the Wings playing around the net, and he's an intelligent 200-foot player who is more than capable in the defensive third of the rink.  At 33, Killorn isn't a candidate for a long-term deal, but, with no acquisition cost, he could be a useful piece as Detroit tries to vault itself into post-season contention.