A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 2-1 defeat to the Caorlina Hurricanes Thursday
A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 2-1 defeat to the Caorlina Hurricanes Thursday
On Thursday night at Little Caesars Arena, the Carolina Hurricanes dominated the Detroit Red Wings. Carolina put on a clinic in its aggressive, heavy forechecking style, and the Red Wings—missing their top two centers and another top six winger—were unable to find a counter-punch. For a clearer sense of the Hurricanes' domination, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck), the Hurricanes beat the Red Wings 3.24-1.52. Carolina established that advantage in the first period and only stretched it as the game progressed. On the scoreboard this was a close game, but when you consider how little the Canes afforded Detroit, it was more like a blowout. Zero Red Wings earned greater than a 50% share of on-ice xG for the game at five-on-five.
-The below map of all situations scoring chances shows Carolina's complete and utter control of the slot at both ends of the rink. While the Hurricanes surfeited on premium chances in tight, Detroit struggled to muster quality offense of its own.
-At five-on-five (per Natural Stat Trick), the Red Wings earned just a 37.25% CorsiFor, a 27.91% share of scoring chances, and 20.45% share of on-ice xG. None of those numbers are good, but they're all better than Detroit's 0% share of high-danger chances, with the Canes putting up 13 and the Red Wings 0.
Individual Impacts
-By individual xG contributions, Seth Jarvis (1.1) wasn't far off from out-chancing the entire Red Wings (1.5). If there was a mild silver lining among Detroit skaters, it came in the form of another strong Joe Veleno performance. The 23-year-old led the Red Wings in ice time (22:24) and individual xG (0.4)
-Using 11 forwards and seven defensemen once again, the Red Wings did not have a single forward line play more than five minutes at five-on-five. The other common thread was that none of those lines was able to create much offense of consequence.
Detroit's busiest line was Alex DeBrincat, Andrew Copp, and Lucas Raymond at 4:50. The trio was the Red Wings' most productive line at five-on-five, but they mustered just 0.143 xG. To their credit, DeBrincat, Copp, and Raymond did earn a 72.2% share of on-ice xG.
The second busiest Detroit line was DeBrincat, Veleno, and Patrick Kane at 4:42. They were outscored 1-0, out-chanced 0.101 to 0.209 by xG, and earned a 32.7% share of on-ice xG.
-On the back end, Jake Walman and Moritz Seider were the only pairing to spend the full game together. They played 11:56 and finished the night having been on the ice for one goal for and one against. However, they earned just 5.2% of on-ice xG in their minutes together.
Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry played 5:52 together (Detroit's second highest five-on-five usage among defense pairs) and fared a bit better than Walman-Seider by xG share (24.8%) but not much.
Five different combinations played between three and five minutes. Those were (from greatest usage to least) Chiarot-Justin Holl, Shayne Gostisbehere-Holl, Olli Maatta-Holl, Maatta-Petry, and Gostisbehere-Chiarot.
-Finally, over the course of 60 minutes, Ville Husso played an excellent game. He made 37 saves on 39 shots, conceding two goals on 3.244 xG for 1.23 Goals Saved Above Expected.
So, on the whole, this was an encouraging start from Husso. He made big saves on quality chances all throughout the game, and yet, it has to be said the game-winner he yielded to Jordan Staal in the second period was brutal—a gift given when Husso misjudged a dump-in and was caught out of position by a big carom.
Because Staal's eventual tap-in came from point blank range, xGs (based on shot location alone) do not register the goal as a bad one, but Husso's misplay was a massive blunder in a tight game.
Nonetheless, his overall effort was a positive one, and it would be too harsh to say he cost the Red Wings this game, considering it was his work that kept them afloat for long stretches.
Also from THN Detroit
Red Wings 1, Hurricanes 2: Carolina Smothers Larkin-less Red Wings
Could the Red Wings' Approach to NHL Roster Construction Hinder Their Prospects' Progress?
From the Archive: Chris Chelios, the Red Wings' American Rock