Carolina Smothers Detroit, Again: Red Wings-Hurricanes Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 4-0 loss in Carolina last night
© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports - Carolina Smothers Detroit, Again: Red Wings-Hurricanes Statistical ReviewLast night in Raleigh, the Detroit Red Wings suffered a 4-0 shutout defeat at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. It was a defeat that dealt another major blow to Detroit's playoff fortunes, and the frustration of the evening invited lashing out at individual blunders on Carolina's various goals, which only obscured the scale of the Hurricanes' dominance. For a better sense of that domination, let's take a look at the underlying numbers from last night.
The Big Picture
-Per MoneyPuck, Carolina enjoyed a 3.19-2.76 expected goals advantage last night, but even that number fails to capture the scope of the Canes' control over the game. The Red Wings' offense came primarily in the third period, driven by score effects with the outcome out of reach. After the first period (which finished scoreless), Carolina led 1.437-0.7 by xG; at the end of the second, the Hurricanes led 4-0 by goals and 2.722-1.173 by xG. Per Natural Stat Trick, Detroit's five-on-five goal share in the first was 29.63% in the first period, 42.28% in the second, and 61.45% in the third.
-The below five-on-five heat map of unblocked shots (thanks to Natural Stat Trick) offers an insight into the style of Carolina's control. The Hurricanes create offense by throwing the puck on net at every possible opportunity, resulting in an outsized volume. Last night, it also produced three bad angle goals at five-on-five.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, at five-on-five, for the entire game, the Red Wings earned 44.55 CorsiFor%, a 46.67% share of scoring chances, a 68.75% share of high-danger chances, and a 46.36% share of xG. That high-danger chance figure is an obvious outlier, but it's a number the Hurricanes don't care about, and their results against Detroit this season (three wins in three games with the Red Wings scoring a grand total of three times) back up that belief.
Individual Impacts
-Given the combination of Detroit's 11 forward-seven defensemen alignment and the Red Wings' need to chase the game, it should come as no surprise that Derek Lalonde did a lot of shuffling with his forward lines last night.
The Red Wings best and busiest line at five-on-five was the trio of David Perron, J.T. Compher, and Alex DeBrincat. That unit played 6:45 together (scoreless for both teams), commanding play to the tune of a 1.147-0.304 xG. Perron led Detroit in individual xG for the third consecutive game at 0.64. Compher led the Red Wings in five-on-five on-ice xG share at 74.388%, no small feat considering how thoroughly Carolina controlled the game.
Detroit's second busiest line at five-on-five (playing 6:28 together) was Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer. They had strong underlying numbers but poor results, earning an 0.802-0.31 xG advantage but being out-scored 0-2.
For the Hurricanes, the top line of Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis drove the lion's share of offense. Their underlying numbers were good if unexceptional (0.436-0.332 by xG), and they outscored the Red Wings 2-0.
-On the back end, Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry had strong underlying numbers for the second game in a row but were out-scored 1-0. In 14:00 together at five-on-five, they earned a 1.164-0.522 xG advantage. Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider had a commanding night together at five-on-five. They played 13:54 of scoreless hockey but earned a 1.008-0.423 xG advantage. Meanwhile, the third pair of Justin Holl and Olli Maatta struggled in terms of underlying numbers but managed to avoid allowing that advantage to show up on the scoreboard. They played to an 0.067-0.784 disadvantage by xG but kept their minutes scoreless.
-In net, this was not a strong evening for James Reimer. He made 29 saves on 33 shots, facing 3.187 xG and conceding four goals for a -0.81 Goals Saved Above Expected per MoneyPuck. His fourth goal against (scored by Jarvis) in particular was brutal, coming on a shot worth just 0.06 xG where Detroit was in sound defensive position.
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