A dive into the underlying numbers from Tuesday night's 4-3 Detroit loss Tuesday night against the Capitals
A dive into the underlying numbers from Tuesday night's 4-3 Detroit loss Tuesday night against the Capitals
On Tuesday night in Washington, a lot went right for the Detroit Red Wings, but the two most important things did not. First, the game went to overtime, already an advantage for the host Capitals; then, Washington found the OT winner after a near Red Wing miss at the other end of the ice. It was a strong five-on-five performance for Detroit, but it was a game where results mattered more than process. Despite that, let's take a look at the underlying numbers that defined Tuesday night's 4-3 Red Wing loss in Washington.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals (per MoneyPuck.com), Detroit earned a 3.65-2.62 advantage. It was a slow start to the game for the Red Wings, who trailed 0.34-0.968 by xG after the first period, but they found their legs to take a 2.963-1.818 lead by xG and 2-1 on the scoreboard by the end of the second. By the end of the third, the game was tied 3-3 by actual goals but the Red Wings (who would not record a shot on goal in overtime) led 3.645-2.392 by xG.
-As the below heat map of five-on-five unblocked shots (courtesy of Natural Stat Trick) shows, the Red Wings drove a high volume of offense to premium real estate just beyond the crease. Detroit also created an unusual volume of offense from along the goal line (not exactly a high-danger area). Meanwhile, the Capitals were able to concentrate a solid share of their chances around the net.
-Per NST, at five-on-five, Detroit was the comprehensively better team, earning a 53.27% CorsiFor, a 59.09% share of scoring chances, a 52.38% share of high-danger chances, and a 58.22% share of expected goals. The Red Wings also won the special teams battle, scoring on one of their two power plays while holding Washington scoreless in their two attempts. All of that could very well have amounted to a winning performance, and on most nights, it probably would have, but not Tuesday night, and that's what matters at the moment for Detroit.
Individual Impacts
-The Red Wings' second line of Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane re-discovered its offensive touch. In 13:44 together at five-on-five, they earned an 0.739-0.576 advantage by xG and a 2-1 lead on the scoreboard.
Detroit's fourth line was downright dominant in a limited role. Austin Czarnik, Joe Veleno, and Robby Fabbri played just 6:53 together at five-on-five (the lowest total for any of the Red Wings' regular lines) but topped Red Wing lines in xG output at 0.887 while also claiming the team-lead in on-ice xG share at 88.5%.
The top line of David Perron, Dylan Larkin, and Lucas Raymond matched up primarily against Washington's top line of Alex Ovechkin, Connor McMichael, and T.J. Oshie. The match-up was about even, but the Caps earned a narrow xG edge and 1-0 advantage on the scoreboard in Larkin and company's minutes. The line played 13:50 at five-on-five, getting out-chanced 0.449 to 0.538. They didn't play poorly, but on a night of thin margins, they were edged out by their Washington counterparts.
It was a similar effort for the third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Christian Fischer. They played 10:55 together—primarily against Washington's second line (centered by Dylan Strome)—getting out-chanced 0.219-0.458 and outscored 0-1.
-On the back end, this was a difficult night for Ben Chiarot and Moritz Seider. In 16:58 together, they were out-chanced 0.415-1.038 and outscored 0-1. They played primarily against the Ovechkin line.
It was however a generally strong performance from the second pair of Simon Edvinsson and Jeff Petry. In 16:29 together, they earned a commanding 1.021-0.342 edge by xG, though their actual results were more middling (one goal for, one against). In the end, that was the theme of the night for Detroit—great underlying numbers with mixed to poor actual results.
-Finally in net, Alex Lyon stopped 26 of the 30 shots that came his way, good for -1.38 Goals Saved Above Replacement per MoneyPuck. I would argue that that number is an overly harsh assessment of Lyon's performance. It is difficult to fault him for any of the Red Wings' goals against, while he also kept them afloat during the difficult start to the first period.
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