A dive into the underlying numbers from the Red Wings' 4-1 win over the Buffalo Sabres
Yesterday afternoon, the Detroit Red Wings snapped their seven-game losing streak in resounding fashion with a 4-1 victory over the visiting Buffalo Sabres. The Red Wings were good value for the victory, controlling the game at five-on-five on the way to the sorely needed win. For a clearer sense of how it came together, let's take a look at the underlying numbers from the game.
The Big Picture
-By all-situation expected goals (per MoneyPuck.com), Detroit out-chanced the Sabres 3.58-2.88 over the course of the afternoon. After the game, Derek Lalonde credited Christian Fischer's goal early in the second period for igniting his team, and that hypothesis is born out by the underlying numbers. As you can see in the below MoneyPuck chart of cumulative xG, Buffalo controlled play through the first period, but after Fischer's goal in the second, the game's tide inverted, and the Red Wings took command.
Cumulative, all situations expected goals, courtesy of MoneyPuck-Detroit controlled this game at five-on-five. Per Natural Stat Trick, the Red Wings earned a 50.59 CorsiFor%, a 45.95% share of scoring chances, a 58.33% share of high-danger chances, and a 63.48% share of expected goals.
The third period offered an interesting insight into Detroit's path to closing out this game. The Red Wings did not register a five-on-five high-danger chance in the third, but Buffalo had just one. Lalonde has spoken before about his belief that closing out games is better done by attending to defense first rather than chasing an insurance goal. That approach clearly worked against the Sabres, who were unable to generate quality offense when they needed an equalizer late, and, despite playing a passive game in the third, Detroit found an insurance goal (and then an empty-netter).
Individual Impacts
-This section has to start with the third line of Michael Rasmussen, Andrew Copp, and Fischer. They played a team-high 12:58 at five-on-five, and they earned an 0.512-0.167 edge in xG and a 1-0 advantage on the scoreboard. In their matchup against Buffalo's top line of Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Zemgus Girgensons, Copp and company held their opposition to just 0.036 xG on two shots on goal at five-on-five. Yesterday, it was the Red Wings' third line that jump-started Detroit and ultimately drove the victory.
The fourth line of Robby Fabbri, Austin Czarnik, and Daniel Sprong also delivered an excellent performance. That unit played 6:09 together at five-on-five, out-chancing their opposition 0.215-0.094 by xG and earning a 1-0 advantage in actual goals.
Yesterday afternoon also brought the best performance we've seen this season from the Alex DeBrincat-J.T. Compher-Patrick Kane that has flashed potential in its previous work together but not yet shown the level of overwhelming dominance they brought against the Sabres. In 9:27 together, they produced a remarkable 1.272-0.271 advantage in xG and another 1-0 edge on the scoreboard. It was an outstanding performance by way of chance creation, and the trio converted on those chances.
-On the back end, Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry delivered a nice, bounce back performance after some difficult outings during Detroit's losing streak. They played 13:03, earning an 0.593-0.142 edge by xG and a 1-0 lead on the scoreboard.
Meanwhile, Jake Walman and Moritz Seider enjoyed a busy and successful night together. They played 16:10 at five-on-five and enjoyed an 0.541-0.394 while also taking a 1-0 lead in actual goals. Seider was also a physical menace yesterday afternoon, credited with seven hits for the game.
-Finally, this was also a strong performance from James Reimer in net. He faced 2.876 xG on 26 shots and made 25 saves for a Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck). Reimer's game was busy and even chaotic as it often seems to be, but it was undeniably effective Saturday afternoon.