Detroit Humbled in Buffalo: Red Wings-Sabres Statistical Review
A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 7-3 loss in Buffalo Tuesday night
Yesterday morning, Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde referred to the evening's game in Buffalo as not "a must win, but...a must play well." Instead, Detroit neither won nor played well, falling 7-3 to the Sabres and extending its present losing streak to six. In truth, like any blowout, it probably isn't a game best understood by the underlying numbers, but let's give it a try anyway.
The Big Picture
-By all situations expected goals, Buffalo edged the visiting Red Wings 3.37-2.84, but it's their first period margin that better explains the game. The Sabres out-chanced Detroit 1.119-0.442 lead and earned a 4-1 lead in actual goals in the opening 20 minutes of hockey.
To be blunt, expected goals don't do justice to the totality of Buffalo's domination. Throughout the season, we've talked about the Red Wings' ability to out-perform xG with some regularity based on pre-shot movement or decisive finishing. Last night saw that dynamic invert; it was a less-than-stellar goaltending performance all around for Detroit, and it was also an impressive display of finishing from the Sabres.
-Per Natural Stat Trick, the Red Wings earned a 47.31 CorsiFor%, a 46.67% share of scoring chances, a 54.17% share of high-danger chances, and a 47.89% share of xG at five-on-five. Those numbers aren't terrible, but, once again, they don't feel especially meaningful in the context of the actual final scoreline either. Buffalo was the better team at five-on-five (even if Detroit did better by high-danger chances), and their finishing made certain there was no doubt about that on the scoreboard.
Individual Impacts
-Once again, the Red Wings juggled their lines regularly over the course of this game in search of something that worked. By the end of the night, five different lines played between 2:30 and 3:30 at five-on-five.
Michael Rasmussen, J.T. Compher, and Patrick Kane was Detroit's busiest line, and they played just 3:27, earning an 0.294-0.049 edge in xG with no actual goals in either direction. David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Rasmussen composed the Red Wings' next busiest line at 3:19 of five-on-five action. Those minutes were also scoreless, with Detroit earning a narrow 0.085-0.032 edge in xG.
Kane, Alex DeBrincat, and Lucas Raymond played 2:57 together, earning an 0.158-0.071 edge in xG. Kane, Compher, and DeBrincat played 2:53 together at five-on-five and were out-chanced 0.011-0.135. Perron, Copp, and Jonatan Berggren played 2:33 and wound up wit an 0.027-0.0 edge by xG.
However, there were six different Red Wing lines that conceded a five-on-five goal yesterday, with Robby Fabbri, Christian Fischer, and Daniel Sprong giving up two.
-On the blue line, this was an extremely trying night for Jeff Petry and Ben Chiarot. They played 13:05 at five-on-five together and were out-chanced 0.755-0.950 and out-scored 5-1. To state the obvious without wishing to dwell on it, that's an extremely poor performance that is difficult to overcome. It also raises questions about Detroit's path forward along the blue line as it continues its playoff chase.
Petry-Chiarot has been a reliable pair for Lalonde at different points throughout the season, including during some of the Red Wings' best hockey of the year in January and February. After last night, it feels difficult to deploy them together with much confidence at all, which raises a question as to Lalonde's alternative. Does he break up Jake Walman and Moritz Seider on the top pair? Does one of Shayne Gostisbehere or Olli Maatta get promoted up from the third pair? Does Justin Holl fold back in from being a healthy scratch? Does Simon Edvinsson get a call-up?
There are varying degrees of promise in each of those possibilities, but it feels difficult to advocate for the status quo after last night.
-The Buffalo line that did the bulk of the damage was Zemgus Girgensons, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch. They played 8:26 together at five-on-five and scored three goals without conceding one on an 0.937-0.129 edge in xG.
-Finally, both goalies struggled for the Red Wings, though our opening caveat about blowouts perhaps ought to apply doubly to goaltenders. Alex Lyon started and made nine saves on 13 shots, while earning a -2.89 Goals Saved Above Expected (per MoneyPuck). Meanwhile, James Reimer came on in relief late in the first period and finished his night with 23 saves on 26 shots and a -0.74 GSAE (also per MoneyPuck).
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