A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 5-0 win in Calgary Saturday afternoon
A dive into the underlying numbers from Detroit's 5-0 win in Calgary Saturday afternoon
Yesterday afternoon in Calgary, the Detroit Red Wings arrested their losing skid at two and earned a much-needed 5-0 rout over the reeling Flames. For a clearer sense of how this game was won, let's take a look at the underlying numbers.
The Big Picture
-Despite the lopsided final scoreline, the underlying numbers do not exactly suggest dominance from the Red Wings.
Per MoneyPuck, Calgary earned a 4.17-2.74 in expected goals over the course of last night's game. However, a decent chunk of that margin came in the third period, with Detroit leading 4-0 and the game out of reach. After two periods, the Red Wings trailed only 2.38-2.491 by xGs.
By the numbers, Detroit struggled at five-on-five, earning just a 36.27% CorsiFor, a 34.09% share of scoring chances, a 27.27% share of high-danger chances, and a 25.51% share of expected goals (all numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick).
-As the above heat map shows, this was not a case of the Red Wings getting tons of interior chances while relegating the Flames to the perimeter. Detroit did generate a solid portion of its offense from the slot but at quite limited volume. Meanwhile, Calgary created a high volume of chances from all over the offensive zone.
Instead, the difference in this game was goaltending and finishing. The Red Wings made the absolute most of their chances, while James Reimer weathered a storm in net for Detroit to earn decisive victory on a night when not a single skater managed to break even by on-ice five-on-five xG share.
Individual Impacts
-This section can only begin with Reimer, who was undeniably outstanding, making 38 saves (equal to 4.17 xG). The Red Wings needed to get Alex Lyon a rest, and with Ville Husso out injured once again, that left no alternative but Reimer, who had given up five or more goals in half of his previous eight starts. However, when Detroit needed him, Reimer was enormous, confronting a significant workload and coming away from it completely unblemished.
-The Red Wings shuffled their lines heading into yesterday's game and proceeded to score three five-on-five goals. Two came from the new-look second line of Lucas Raymond, J.T. Compher, and Alex DeBrincat, and the other came from the newly minted third line of David Perron, Andrew Copp, and Joe Veleno.
That Copp line created the greatest volume of offense of any Detroit line yesterday, but even they mustered just 0.271 xG. Meanwhile, that Compher unit played 9:02 together, epitomizing the sense that the Red Wings won the game with decisive finishing despite questionable play-driving. They were out-chanced 0.432-0.171 by xG but still came away with two goals for and none against.
-On the back end, the Ben Chiarot-Jeff Petry pairing suffered in its 14:59 of ice time, getting out-chanced 0.128-1.035 by xG, while the other two pairs came out roughly even by xG and ahead on the scoreboard.
Shayne Gostisbehere and Olli Maatta played 13:13 together at five-on-five to an 0.348-0.572 margin in xG and 1-0 advantage in actual goals, while Jake Walman and Moritz Seider played 12:02 together at five-a-side, outscoring their opponents 2-0 with a slight disadvantage in xG (0.283-0.327).
-If Reimer allowed Lyon to take some much-earned and needed rest, the 5-0 margin also allowed a number of Detroit's stars to take on lighter workloads as well. The Red Wings have leaned heavily on their top players all year, but yesterday, some of those players got to take on a bit easier of a night.
DeBrincat played just 14:05, Raymond played just 14:46, and Patrick Kane played just 15:51. Seider was still up at 19:59, but that is comfortably below his season average of 22:19. Similarly, Dylan Larkin played 18:27, more than a minute below his season average of 19:53.
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