Without Larkin, Detroit lineup struggling to match up with opponents
During the three games since Dylan Larkin's injury, the Red Wings haven't been able to match up with opponents' top lines. But after an encouraging third period against Vegas, they hope they've turned a corner.
Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports - Without Larkin, Detroit lineup struggling to match up with opponentsIt’s hard to overstate Dylan Larkin’s value to the Detroit Red Wings. He’s their captain, their longest tenured player and their pulse at both ends of the ice. No one has had a bigger impact on the franchise this season than him, and the results showed when Detroit handed in a disastrous December when he was injured.
This time around, with Larkin out with a lower body injury for two weeks, the script was supposed to be different. With a healthier lineup than that December slump — namely second line center J.T. Compher — the Red Wings were in position to survive a little better without him. But the results are much the same as the last time he left the lineup. They’ve lost their first three straight games without him — four if you count the Florida game he left during. They’re struggling to match up with opponents’ top lines, and their offense has lacked finish and consistency. All in all, it’s been a disaster.
But Detroit hopes it rounded a corner in its last game. a close 5-3 loss to Vegas that saw the Red Wings hang with the defending champs for 57 minutes before a late goal tilted the game in the Golden Knights’ favor. As Detroit wraps up a four-game road trip in Buffalo on Tuesday, such a development could help them bounce back in a week that’s flipped their playoff chances completely around.
“I think the first couple games … we were kinda sorry for ourselves maybe,” defenseman Moritz Seider said Saturday after the Vegas game. “I think there was a lot of good stuff today, I think everyone stepped up this game a little more knowing he’s out, obviously I think it’s even harder for him watching the games from up top. But overall I think we have a really good lineup even though he’s not in it and we just gotta find a way to get two points.”
Detroit does have a good lineup without Larkin. It’s got 13 players who’ve reached double-digit goals, including talented scorers in Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, effective defensive forwards in J.T. Compher and Michael Rasmussen, and impactful forecheckers in Christian Fischer and Andrew Copp. Versatile and deep, the Red Wings’ forward corps should be able to get it done without Larkin.
But the X-factor with Larkin is that he can do it all, and that makes him reliable in any situation. He can handle any matchup at both ends of the ice, which makes him an effective player in his own right. At the same time, his ability to do so takes the burden off of players deeper in the lineup, elevating their chances of success against opponents.
Without Larkin in the lineup, twice an opponent’s top line has feasted on the Red Wings’ matchups. Against Colorado on Tuesday, its top line featuring Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen factored into five goals (two on the power play) and a 1.358 expected goals rate at even strength as tracked by Moneypuck. Once more Saturday night in Vegas, the Golden Knights’ top line of Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault factored into four scores and accumulated 2.182 expected goals. Without Larkin, quality scoring lines are dominating Detroit.
“There’s gonna be an adjustment, especially with Dylan out, and I think we’re adjusting to it,” Detroit coach Derek Lalonde said Saturday. “It’s tough on the road, when you get a line like this — the Eichel line tonight, I think they had four points. You had the MacKinnon line that just ate us up. It’s a little tougher with our No. 1 center out just getting matchups, and we get exposed. But I think for the most part we handled it fairly well tonight. We put ourselves in a great position. Didn’t go our way and we just gotta keep getting hungry.”
Part of the issue might be a sometimes overlooked feature of playing on the road: the Red Wings send their lines over the boards first. Their opponents can pick who they put out on the ice, and Detroit has to pursue most of its desired matchups on the fly. Whereas the Red Wings could simply put Larkin’s line on the ice when in doubt, Lalonde doesn’t have the luxury of such an easy decision without him.
Larkin is still out for a little while longer — probably through this Saturday’s home game against Buffalo, if Lalonde’s original estimation of Larkin missing two weeks remains accurate. So, Detroit needs to figure out how to make due without him. Despite allowing two goals from Marchessault (one of which was a hat-trick clinching empty netter), it feels that its third period against Vegas — one it outshot its hosts 13-5 in — is a good recipe.
Lalonde said, “This one stings but I think if we can do a good job of just judging ourselves a little bit on process — and I think over the last five periods, effort — and unfortunately not the outcome, we can have some success going forward.”
The road until then gets a lot less rocky from here on out. Instead of facing the past two Stanley Cup champions in the Avalanche and Golden Knights, the Red Wings’ upcoming schedule consists of perennial bottomfeeders in Buffalo, Arizona and then Buffalo again. If Detroit can beat anyone without their No. 1 center, it’s hard not to think it’s these two teams. Then again, the Coyotes just beat them 4-0 by finishing a number of early opportunities. Finally getting a win — snapping a five-game losing streak in the process — isn’t going to be easy.
“No one cares how we’re gonna end up winning but I think we just gotta get it done here,” Seider said.
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