With a run of defensemen and centers mocked early in the draft, the Red Wings might get an early pick of the wingers that could fill a hole in their prospect pool
With a run of defensemen and centers mocked early in the draft, the Red Wings might get an early pick of the wingers that could fill a hole in their prospect pool
If only NHL draft picks came with a price tag.
When it comes to draft picks, the value of each unit differs for every team based on factors such as draft position, the depth of the draft class and the needs of the team who owns the pick. Value isn’t just the number next to the pick so much as a complex calculation of wants and needs for every team. This is what teams negotiate when they trade draft picks, especially when trading up or down in the first round.
For the Detroit Red Wings, this calculus makes their 15th overall pick in the 2024 NHL Draft a lot more valuable to them than anyone else. The reason why comes down to their positional needs, the needs of other rebuilding teams, as well as the way this year’s draft class has shaken out.
It comes down to economics.
In the early picks of the first round, the 2024 NHL Draft should see many defensemen and centers come off the board. This is partly because these positions take a higher level of skill to play; it's also partly because finding this skill outside of the draft comes with a big price tag. So, NHL franchises tend to sink more valuable draft capital into selecting those players.
Luckily for the Red Wings, they don’t have to pay that premium this year — they already did. In the past five years with general manager Steve Yzerman at the helm, the Red Wings have picked two centers in Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson, and three defensemen in Moritz Seider, Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin Pellikka. Both Seider and Sandin Pellikka had an even greater value as right-handed defensemen, which Detroit paid in full to draft them at sixth and 17th overall, respectively.
All the while, the Red Wings have spent only one pick on a winger: 2020 fourth overall pick Lucas Raymond. This has had a clear impact on the prospect pool. With Raymond already an NHL first-liner, their top wing prospects are 2020 second rounder Jonatan Berggren, 2021 third rounder Carter Mazur and 2019 sixth rounder Elmer Soderblom.
Those three prospects are quite talented in specific skill sets — Berggren is a shifty playmaker, Mazur plays with lots of jam and Soderblom has the size to be a bottom six stalwart. But none of them are first round picks. None of them have the elite upside that first-round wingers can bring, and that sort of elite skill is something the Red Wings could use in their cupboard. At risk of trying to predict what the often unpredictable Yzerman will do, it’s natural to assume that Detroit will pick a winger with this year’s first round pick given that organizational need.
Here’s where two economic concepts come into play: marginal utility and marginal value. Marginal is an economics way of saying the additional something per unit. Utility is the usefulness of a good or service to a consumer, in this case, the Red Wings. They get a lot of marginal utility out of drafting a winger 15th overall because they really need one in the prospect pool. And because the market trends that favor defensemen and centers should make a winger available at 15th, Detroit's pick has more marginal value compared to what other teams could gain from it.
Look at it in non-economics terms — because Detroit is really looking for a winger, it’s functionally getting a top three pick when it comes to its position of need.
Who exactly might that be? Top winger Ivan Demidov will probably be off the board at 15th, and so might center-winger Tij Iginla depending on what Calgary and Montreal decide to do. But outside of them, the Red Wings should have their pick of Cole Eiserman, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard or Liam Greentree, the next three wingers in the draft rankings.
Now, this makes the assumption that the Red Wings wouldn't like to draft a center, a position whose practitioners tend to come into the league as wingers anyway. Usually among prospects, centers are the best forwards on their respective team, and so logically some centers would make outstanding wingers. Even Detroit's No. 1 center, Dylan Larkin, was camped out on Henrik Zetterberg's right wing as a rookie.
But whether they play wing or center, players who are billed as a center have a higher value in the draft given the necessary skill to play the position. Even if a player like Konsta Helenius or Berkly Catton might be better forwards compared to their winger peers if they were to slide over on the line sheet, the cost of that center nametag is something that Detroit doesn't have to pay. It can get a natural winger for a much cheaper cost at No. 15 than it would take to trade up and grab one of those centers.
Why does all this matter? The overall value of the 15th pick is an important consideration for how the Red Wings use it. If they trade up — New Jersey and Buffalo are reportedly shopping the 10th and 11th picks, respectively — that could give Detroit a shot at getting one of those top two wingers in Demidov or Iginla. However, the cost of such an upgrade has to make sense compared to who will be available at 15th. In a way, the Red Wings aren’t trading up four or five spots in the draft so much as they’re trading up one spot in the winger depth chart, and this shapes the calculus for any trade negotiations that take place. Maybe a center like Helenius or Catton could be a good investment at 10th or 11th because they have the versatility to play both winger or center, but the Red Wings can also get comparable value from a true winger later in the draft. If Detroit doesn't have to spend extra for a center just to stick them on the wing, it shouldn't.
This could all unravel if the draft goes out of its expected order — not unlikely given the tendency for shockers on the draft floor. If this happens and teams start picking those wingers that Detroit would have otherwise picked, then two things happen: First, the marginal utility of the pick decreases, as the Red Wings won’t get the chance to pick their winger of choice. Second, the marginal value of their pick increases as the remaining defenseman and centers at that position are more valuable to Detroit’s peers than itself. This could cause the Red Wings to trade back in the draft to recoup this value and still get a high-upside winger.
This is economics in action, and it substantially favors Detroit.
Whether Detroit picks the winger it badly needs or whether it trades around depending on that position’s availability, the goal of any draft pick is to maximize value. So long as the current economy of the draft holds out, the Red Wings’ draft pick could be exceedingly valuable to them compared to anyone else.
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